News from the Fed

  • Global factors may be weighing on US inflation, say Cleveland Fed researchers
  • Weakness in CPI inflation measures in August, combined with persistently low inflation rates through much of the last year and a half, suggests that inflation continues to be weighed down by a variety of forces, even as the recovery in the US economy progresses, say Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researchers William Bednar and Edward Knotek II. Read more
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  • GDP growth expected to pick up, says Cleveland Fed researcher
  • Prolonged economic weakness following the Great Recession and slow growth in potential output has led to a debate on the risk of stagnation ? a prolonged period characterized by low interest rates, low inflation rates, slow potential growth, and a level of output below potential. Read more
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  • The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Getting Back to Normal
  • Speaking in downtown Cleveland for the first time since becoming president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta J. Mester shared with members of the Cleveland Association of Business Economics (CABE), CFA Society Cleveland and the Risk Management Association (RMA), Northern Ohio Chapter, her economic outlook and views on returning to a more normalized approach to monetary policy. Read more
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  • Employment trends in manufacturing and education and health services show a region in transition, says Cleveland Fed researcher
  • Examining trends in population and private employment in 17 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the region served by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Read more
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The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Getting Back to Normal

Speaking in downtown Cleveland for the first time since becoming president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta J. Mester shared with members of the Cleveland Association for Business Economics, CFA Society Cleveland and the Risk Management Association, Northern Ohio Chapter, her economic outlook and views on returning to a more normalized approach to monetary policy.
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  • Median CPI
  • Credit Easing
  • CFSI
  • Inflation Expectations
  • Inflation Nowcasting

Median Consumer Price Index

A more accurate measure of the underlying inflation trend. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Credit Easing Policy Tools

Compare the amounts of different assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, from T-bills to mortgage-backed securities. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Cleveland Financial Stress Index
 
09/29: -0.692

0.31 increase
over the past seven days   

Chart.

Estimates of Inflation Expectations

Estimates of inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Inflation Nowcasting

Forecasts of today's inflation rates in the CPI and the PCE price index. 

 

  Quarterly annualized percent change  
Nowcast quarter CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
2014:Q31.161.311.311.4310/01/2014
2014:Q41.261.571.251.4210/01/2014

Latest Economic Research

  • Global Factors and Domestic Inflation 
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  • US inflation moved up this spring after subdued readings in late 2013 and at the start of 2014. Measured on a year-over-year basis, inflation was stable near 1.6 percent from April through July according to the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). As is normally the case, inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was somewhat higher, averaging 2 percent during that time, though it too was relatively stable. However, the August CPI report broke this stable trend. One potential factor that could be weighing on US inflation—and which might serve as a headwind to future increases in inflation—is recent international developments, such as the unsteady recovery and low inflation outlook in the euro zone. Read more  
  • Growth Expected to Pick Up 
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  • Prolonged economic weakness following the Great Recession and slow growth in potential output has led to a debate on the risk of stagnation— a prolonged period characterized by low interest rates, low inflation rates, slow potential growth, and a level of output below potential. Current economic conditions, however, suggest that the economy continues to recover. In the five years following the end of the recession, real GDP grew at a steady, albeit modest, average annual rate. And according to the latest CBO forecast, real GDP growth is expected to pick up in the next few years. Read more  
  • Reassessing the Beveridge Curve “Shift” Four Years Later 
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  • Early on in the current recovery, economists and policymakers were worried about a potential shift in the Beveridge curve—an empirical relationship between job openings and unemployment that is viewed as a measure of the efficiency with which the labor market is matching unemployed workers to the available openings. Exactly four years ago, we touched upon this issue here, and argued that it was too early to call what had happened a shift. Well, four years later, we have 16 more quarterly data points to inform us. Read more  
  • Industries, Job Growth, and Poverty Trends 
  • Anne Chen, and  
  • The shares of a county’s employment that are in each major industry classification are correlated with the county’s poverty rate. Employment shares in healthcare and public administration, for example, are positively correlated with poverty rates, while employment shares in professional services and construction are negatively correlated with poverty rates. In this analysis, we examine some of the changes in these correlations in recent years. We will also look at the changes in industry employment that have accompanied changes in county poverty rates. Read more  

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