News from the Fed

  • Cleveland Fed Estimates of Expected Inflation
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.89 percent. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade. Read more
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  • Median CPI up 0.1% in August
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index was essentially unchanged (0.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics? (BLS) monthly CPI report.  (PDF)
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  • Susan Kenney Appointed a Senior Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Susan Kenney has been appointed a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in Cleveland, Ohio, effective September 1, 2014. Read more
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  • Watch Constitution Day New Citizen Ceremony--live! via Ustream
  • On 9/17, at 2 pm, 40 people from around the world will become new U.S. citizens at a naturalization ceremony to be held at the Cleveland Fed. Read more
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More…

Consumer Help
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The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Communications: Progress on Multiple Journeys

Speaking in public for the first time since becoming president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta J. Mester addressed the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, CFA Society Pittsburgh, and the Pittsburgh Society of Investment Professionals. She shared her economic outlook, her optimism about the potential for growth, and stressed the importance of transparency and clear communication by the FOMC.
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The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank a NorthCoast 99 Winner for 15 Years!

The Cleveland Fed has been named a NorthCoast 99 award winner for the 15th consecutive year! The award honors great workplaces for top talent in Northeast Ohio.
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  • Inflation Nowcasting
  • Median CPI
  • Credit Easing
  • CFSI
  • Inflation Expectations

Inflation Nowcasting

Forecasts of today's inflation rates in the CPI and the PCE price index. 

 

  Quarterly annualized percent change  
Nowcast quarter CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE Updated
2014:Q31.221.311.171.1909/19/2014

Median Consumer Price Index

A more accurate measure of the underlying inflation trend. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Credit Easing Policy Tools

Compare the amounts of different assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, from T-bills to mortgage-backed securities. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Cleveland Financial Stress Index
 
09/18: -1.12

0.127 decrease
over the past seven days   

Chart.

Estimates of Inflation Expectations

Estimates of inflation expectations, the real interest rate, and the inflation risk premium. 

Median Consumer Price Index

Latest Economic Research

  • Reassessing the Beveridge Curve “Shift” Four Years Later 
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  • Early on in the current recovery, economists and policymakers were worried about a potential shift in the Beveridge curve—an empirical relationship between job openings and unemployment that is viewed as a measure of the efficiency with which the labor market is matching unemployed workers to the available openings. Exactly four years ago, we touched upon this issue here, and argued that it was too early to call what had happened a shift. Well, four years later, we have 16 more quarterly data points to inform us. Read more  
  • Industries, Job Growth, and Poverty Trends 
  • Anne Chen, and  
  • The shares of a county’s employment that are in each major industry classification are correlated with the county’s poverty rate. Employment shares in healthcare and public administration, for example, are positively correlated with poverty rates, while employment shares in professional services and construction are negatively correlated with poverty rates. In this analysis, we examine some of the changes in these correlations in recent years. We will also look at the changes in industry employment that have accompanied changes in county poverty rates. Read more  
  • The Evolution of Household Leverage during the Recovery 
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  • Recent research has shown that geographic areas that experienced greater household deleveraging during the recession also experienced relatively severe economic contractions and slower recoveries. This analysis explores geographic variations in household debt over the past recession and recovery. It finds that regions that had very high household leverage at the start of the recession have shifted back toward national norms, while the variation of leverage within metro areas has maintained steady relationships with neighborhood characteristics such as location, demographics, and the age of the housing stock. Read more  (PDF)  
  • The Importance of Trend Inflation in the Search for Missing Disinflation  
  • Evaluating Progress Toward the Fed’s Inflation Target  
  • The Shifting Source of New Business Establishments and New Jobs  
  • On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity  
  • Peer-to-Peer Lending Is Poised to Grow  
  • Bitcoin versus the Dollar  
  • All Research content 
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