Michael Shenk |

Research Assistant

Michael Shenk is a research assistant in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He joined the bank in January 2006, and his work focuses on indicators of housing-market activity and on support for economists working on international topics. Mr. Shenk graduated from Miami University in December 2005 with a bachelor of arts in economics.

Fed Publications

Title	Date	Publication	Author(s)	Type
Productivity in the Recession and Going Forward	July, 2009		Michael Shenk; Paul W Bauer;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: In contrast to previous postwar recessions that tended to see sharply lower labor productivity growth, if not outright declines, the 2001 and the current recessions have had relatively strong labor productivity growth.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	July, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The S&P/Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city indexes stayed relatively flat in May. The seasonally-adjusted series each fell 0.2 percent while the unadjusted data showed a meager gain of 0.4 percent for the 10-city index and 0.5 percent for the 20-city index. Either way you look at it, the home price indexes had their best month in over two years. The 12-month growth rates in both indexes improved as well, but remain extremely depressed at −16.8 percent and −17.1 percent for the 10- and 20-city indexes, respectively. Home prices in the Cleveland metropolitan area increased 2.8 percent in May following a 0.6 percent increase in April. The 12-month growth rate for home prices in Cleveland now sits at −6.2 percent up from −10.5 percent in April. Keep in mind that sales pair counts, though up in May, are still extremely low and have led to some greater than usual volatility in the index’s measurement of Cleveland area home prices. The FHFA purchase-only index increased 0.9 percent in May, bringing the 12-month growth rate to −5.6 percent, its highest level since June 2007.
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New Home Sales	July, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New home single-family home sales increased 11.0 percent in June, the largest of three consecutive increases and the fourth in the past five months. In terms of actual units, the increase in the sales pace was rather small at 38,000 units, nonetheless that is the largest monthly gain since October 2007. Over the past five months, new single family home sales are up 55,000 units, amounting to a 16.7 percent increase from its all-time low level of just 329,000 units. Despite the recent increases, new home sales are still roughly 40 percent below their average sales pace over the 20 years from 1980 to 2000. The number of new homes for sals continued to decline in June, falling 12,000 units or 4.1 percent. The inventory of new homes for sale now sits near the bottom of its longer-term average range. In terms of months of supply, the decline in inventory coupled with the increase in sales resulted in a substantial, 1.4 month, drop in the inventory to sales ratio, from 10.2 months to 8.8 months. Despite declining 3.6 months since reaching an all-time high in January, the level of inventory relative to the sales pace remains very elevated by historical standards.
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Existing Home Sales	July, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales increased 2.4 percent in June, bringing the series to its highest level since October 2008. Prior to June’s gain, sales had bounced between an annual sales pace of 4,050 and 4,250 for the past seven months. The 12-month growth rate in sales increased to 0.2 percent in June, reaching positive territory for the first time since September 2008, and only the second time since November 2005. The number of existing single-family homes on the market for sale was unchanged in June but the increase in the sales pace resulted in a decrease in the months of supply from 9.1 months to 8.9 months, its lowest level since December 2008. The median sales price of existing single-family homes, which is not seasonally adjusted, increased 4.0 percent in June and is up 9.4 percent over the past two months. However, the 12-month growth rate in the median sales price is still down 15.0 percent—not far off its all time low of 16.8 percent seen in April 2009.
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HPI	June, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The pace of home price declines shown by both the 10- and 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes declined in April. The seasonally-adjusted 20-city index fell 0.9 percent over the month, the smallest decline since August 2007, while the 10-city index fell 1.0 percent over the month, the smallest decline since June 2008. The 12-month growth rates in both series improved in April and currently stand at −18.1 percent for the 20-city index and −18.0 percent for the 10-city index, up from lows in January of −19.0 percent and −19.4 percent, respectively. The FHFA purchase-only index was largely unchanged in April, falling just 0.1 percent over the month. The FHFA index has stabilized since November 2008 and has only fallen 0.6 percent over the past five months. The index’s 12-month growth rate improved in April, as well, coming in at −6.8 percent, its highest level since August 2008, and up from a low of −9.0 percent in November 2008.
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A Global Fiscal Crisis?	June, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The financial crisis and accompanying recession have had a severe impact on government budgets, raising the specter of huge government debt burdens down the road. Large government debt burdens are not just a fiscal problem. They can become a monetary problem, too.
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New Home Sales	June, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family homes sales were virtually unchanged in May, falling just 0.6 percent, or 2,000 units, to an annual sales pace of 342,000. Over the last five months new home sales have been fairly stable and have actually increased 4.0 percent since reaching a cyclical low in January. That marks the first time the series’ four-month growth rate has reached positive territory since 2006 and the highest such growth rate since the series peaked in 2005. The number of new homes on the market continued to decline in May, falling 2.3 percent. With the decline, the number of new homes for sale remains on the low end of the normal range of inventories seen between 1970 and 2000. However, relative to the sales pace inventories are still elevated, with the current level being equal to 10.2 months of supply at the current sales pace, down from an all-time high of 12.4 months in January. The median sales price of new single-family homes sold jumped up in May yielding a 12-month growth rate of −3.4 percent.
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Existing Home Sales	June, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales increased 1.9 percent in May following April’s 2.2 percent increase. Over the past seven months, existing single-family home sales have been fairly stable, bouncing around between an annual sales pace of 4.1 and 4.2 million. The 12-month growth rate in sales has stabilized in recent months, as well. Coming in at 3.0 percent in May (for the second consecutive month) it is up substantially from its cyclical low of −23.7 percent in February 2008. The number of existing single-family homes for sale declined 3.3 percent in May, yielding 9.0 months of supply at the current sales pace, down from a cyclical high of 11.0 months in June 2008. The median sales price of existing single-family homes sold in May, which is not seasonally adjusted, increased 4.2 percent from April. The 12-month growth rate in the median sales price improved slightly from an all time low of 16.8 percent in April to −16.1 percent in May, as the share of sales that were distressed declined substantially.
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Housing Starts	June, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts increased 78,000 units in May, in-line with typical increases over the past 50 years, however because the starts pace is so depressed that change amounts to a rather large 17.2 percent increase. Single-family housing starts, which are typically less-volatile than the total series, increased modestly in May. The 28,000 unit increase, though small by historical standards is the largest since February 2007 and only the tenth increase since the series peaked in January 2006. Single-family housing starts have not fallen in any of the past four months, yielding a four month growth rate above zero for the first time since the series peaked. Permits for single-family homes increased 7.9 percent in May and much like the starts series have shown signs of stabilizing over the past few months as wel, albeit at a low level.
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Retail Sales	June, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total retail sales increased 0.5 percent in May following an upwardly revised 0.2 percent decline in April. While total retail sales have increased in three of the last five months, they are up only 1.1 percent over that time and are still down 9.5 percent from a year ago. Sales at building material, garden equipment and supply dealers increased 1.3 percent in May, the first increase since June 2008. Sales at gasoline stations increased 3.6 percent over the month as higher prices reportedly bolstered sales. Total retail sales less auto and parts dealers and gasoline stations, two of the more volatile components, increased 0.1 percent following decline in March and April. The 12-month growth rate in retail sales excluding auto and parts dealers and gasoline stations was virtually unchanged at 2.9 percent, its lowest level since data became available in 1993.
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International Trade	June, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $0.6 billion in April on top of an upwardly revised increase of $2.5 billion In March. Exports fell 2.3 percent over the course of April and have now fallen during eight of the past nine months. Imports fell 1.4 percent in April, their ninth consecutive monthly decline. Over that nine month span, exports have declined a total of 26.3 percent while imports have fallen a combined 34.5 percent. The result has been a $35.7 billion reduction in the trade deficit that has brought the trade balance from −$64.9 billion to −$29.2 billion, in line with the average deficit seen in 2001.
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Real GDP	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: 2009:Q1 GDP growth was revised up from a −6.1 percent annualized growth rate to a −5.7 percent growth rate in the preliminary release. Revisions to the components of GDP were relatively minor. Personal consumption expenditures were revised down from an annualized growth rate of 2.2 percent to a growth rate of 1.6 percent. All other revisions to the major subcomponents were either positive or effectively neutral. Business fixed investment, exports, government spending and inventories were revised to show slightly greater contributions to GDP growth, while imports and residential investment were largely unchanged.
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Consumer Sentiment	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment increased 3.6 points in May to 68.7, its highest level since September 2008. Despite increasing 12.4 points over the past three months, consumer sentiment remains low by historical standards. The median year-ahead inflation expectation from the underlying survey was unchanged at 2.8 percent, while the median five-to-ten year inflation expectation increased slightly from 2.8 percent to 2.9 percent. Both sets of expectations remain relatively well contained within their normal longer term ranges.
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Putting the Current Recession in Perspective	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The media, as well policymakers, are increasingly calling the current economic downturn the “worst since the Great Depression.” They are not saying that the economy is in a worse place than it was in 1975 or, say the 1980s when inflation and unemployment were in the double digits. The comparison of this recession to others centers on the steepness and breadth of the current decline relative to previous cycles.
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Savings Glut or Domestic Demand?	May, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: A lively debate has arisen over the contribution that foreign savings may have made to our current economic problems. Some argue that an influx of foreign savings helped to inflate the U.S. housing bubble, whose bursting caused the financial turmoil that led to our current recession. Others insist that the problems were by and large home grown. A look at exchange rates and balance-of-payments patterns shows that a rise in U.S demand for imports preceded the influx of foreign savings this time around.
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New Home Sales	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales were essentially unchanged in April pushing the series three-month growth rate into positive territory for the first time since 2007. At 7.0 percent, the growth in sales over the past three months is the highest since the series peaked in 2005. However, because the sales pace remains so low, a 7.0 percent gain is not particularly substantial in terms of the number of additional homes sold. In April the number of unsold new homes on the market declined for the twenty fourth consecutive month, bringing the number of available homes down below 300,000 for the first time since 2001. The present level of inventory amounts to 10.1 months of supply at the current sales pace, down from a record high of 12.4 months in January. The 12-month growth rate in the median sales price declined to −14.9 percent, just above the record low of −15.0 percent set in February.
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Existing Home Sales	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales increased 2.5 percent in April, following a 3.3 percent decline in March, and continuing the recent pattern of bouncing around between an annual sales pace of 4.0 and 4.2 million units. The 12-month growth rate in the sales pace of existing single-family homes improved to −2.8 percent, its highest level since August 2008. The inventory of existing single-family homes for sale increased 9.2 percent in April resulting in 9.6 months of supply, up from 9.0 months in March. The median sales prices of existing single-family homes was virtually unchanged in April, resulting in a 12-month growth rate of −14.9 percent, slightly worse than in March but above January’s record low of −16.7 percent.
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Home Price Inexes	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The national S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 6.9 percent in the first quarter after having fallen 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest two quarterly declines in the 22-year history of the series. On a year-over-year basis, home prices are now down 19.1 percent, also the largest drop on record. The monthly data was a bit more encouraging, as the pace of decline in both the 10- and 20-city indexes slowed in March leaving the 12-month growth rate in the 20-city index unchanged at −18.7 percent, while the 12-month growth rate in the 10-city index improved slightly to −18.6 percent. The FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index decreased 1.1 percent in March, reversing the gains over the past two months. The series’ 12-month growth rate now stands at −7.3 percent, down from −6.9 percent in January and February but up from a record low of −9.0 percent in November 2009. On a quarterly basis the total FHFA index, which includes data from refinancing transactions, increased slightly for the second straight quarter, yielding a four-quarter growth rate of −3.3 percent. The quarterly purchase-only index decreased over the quarter but did so at a slower pace, resulting in a four-quarter growth rate of −7.1 percent, up from −8.3 percent in Q4. The four-quarter growth rates in both series increased for the first time since 2005.
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Housing Starts	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell 12.8 percent in April following an 8.5 percent decrease in March. However, the decline came entirely from the volatile multi-family component of the series. Single-family starts, which track the overall series closely but are generally less-volatile, rose 2.8 percent in April after a slight increase over the past two months. April’s increase in single-family starts puts the three-month growth rate at 3.1 percent, the first time it has ventured into positive territory since April 2007. Permits for single-family homes increased 3.6 percent in March, yielding a three-month growth rate of 9.1 percent, the highest since February 2002.
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Is the Housing Bust Over?	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: It's been three years since the housing markets did a nosedive. Is the housing market correction finally over? The short answer is probably no, but there are some encouraging signs of improvement.
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International Trade	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit reversed course in March, increasing $1.4 billion to $27.6 billion, following seven months of massive declines that more than halved the deficit. Exports and imports both continued to fall in March, but the decline in exports outpaced the decline in imports by enough to cause an expansion in the deficit. Imports have now fallen eight straight months, declining a total of 34.3 percent, while exports have fallen in seven of the past eight months and declined 26.2 percent.
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Mighty Bad Recessions	May, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: No two recessions are exactly alike. Nevertheless, recessions often share basic characteristics that determine their severity and the pace of subsequent recoveries. The IMF has been studying two of these—association with a financial crisis and global reach—to see how they affect a recession’s contours. The implications for our current global economic malaise, which shares both of these characteristics, are sobering. They explain why the current global downturn is the worst since the Great Depression.
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Construction Spending	May, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending increased 0.3 percent in March, its first increase since September 2008. Private construction spending also had its best month since September, as it fell only 0.1 percent. During the five months prior to March, private construction spending fell a combined 14.9 percent. March’s relatively positive numbers were the result of a substantial increase—2.7 percent—in nonresidential construction spending. Private residential construction continued to decline in March, falling 4.2 percent over the month, on par with declines in recent months.
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The Changing Composition of Consumption	May, 2009		Michael Shenk; Paul W Bauer;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: It is no secret that some households are being hit hard in the current recession. The ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit of this financial crisis have led to some abrupt shifts in household consumption behavior.
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New Home Sales	April, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales fell only 0.6 percent in March, following an 8.2 percent gain in February. The 12-month growth rate in sales improved over the month, increasing from −37.4 percent to a still very weak −30.6 percent. Despite the two months of relatively positive news, it is too early to call a bottom to the decline in sales. Since new home sales started to decline in late 2005, there have been numerous small increases in sales, but so far none have held more than a few months. The number of new homes on the market continued to decline in March, falling 5.8 percent and yielding 10.7 months of supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price of new single-family homes continued to decline in March as well, but the 12-month growth rate in the series increased slightly from an all-time low of −14.9 percent to −12.2 percent.
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Existing Home Sales	April, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales declined 2.8 percent in March, following February’s 4.2 percent increase. Over the past five months, existing single family home sales have been relatively stable, bouncing back and forth between an annual pace of roughly 4 million and 4.2 million units. The 12-month growth rate in the median sales price of existing single-family homes increased for the second straight month, but remains depressed at -11.5 percent. The number of existing single-family homes on the market fell modestly over the month resulting in only a slightly higher level of supply relative to the sales pace. With 9.3 months of supply at the current sales pace available, the inventory of homes on the market remains elevated despite recent improvements in the series.
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An Overview of the Healthcare System	April, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Despite much of policymakers’ time being devoted to the ongoing financial crisis and the resulting recession, there seems to be a great deal of resolve to tackle the pressing issue of healthcare reform. With this in mind, it is a good time to take a look at the healthcare industry.
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Factory Orders	April, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.8 percent in February, breaking a streak of six consecutive declines during which orders fell a combined 25.2 percent. February’s increase bumped the 12-month growth rate up from an all-time low of −20.5 percent to −18.8 percent. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircrafts bounced back in February, rising 7.1 percent following a 12.3 percent decline in February. The series’ 12-month growth rate also rebounded, increasing from −24.5 percent to -18.3 percent. Shipments for manufactured goods declined for the seventh consecutive month, but only fell a modest 0.1 percent compared to an average decline of 3.8 percent over the prior six months. Inventories declined 1.2 percent in February resulting in an inventory-to-shipments ratio of 1.4, down just slightly from 1.5 in January.
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China, SDRs, and the Dollar	April, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: China wants a new international reserve currency that is “disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country.” It has recommended Special Drawing Rights for the job. But the private sector will only adopt the SDR if it offers network benefits, comparable to the dollar, but that could take decades. In the meantime, countries worried about their expanding dollar portfolios might take a different tack: Allow their currencies to float and adopt a domestic monetary policy focused on long-term price stability.
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ISM Manufacturing	April, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The ISM Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) increased 0.5 point to 36.3. While this is the third consecutive increase since the index hit a cyclical low of 32.9 in December, the index is still extremely low and well below the expansionary threshold of 50. For comparison, the PMI bottomed out at 39.2 and 40.8 during the 1990 and 2001 recessions, respectively. The employment index increased 2.0 points to 28.1, but remains near its all time low level. The new orders index increased 8.1 points and is now up 18.1 points from its all-time low of 23.1 in December 2008. The inventories index, however, continued to decline and is now at cyclical low of 32.2.
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Construction Spending	April, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending declined 0.9 percent in February as private spending fell by 1.6 percent. Both declines were the smallest since October. Private residential construction declined 4.3 percent in February following a 3.7 percent drop in January, while private nonresidential construction spending increased 0.3 percent , the first increase since September. Despite the meager increase, the 12-month growth rate in private nonresidential construction fell slightly and was negative for the second straight month at −0.2 percent. The 12-month growth rate in private residential construction spending decreased slightly to −29.8 percent, but has been relatively stable in that range for the past 12 months.
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New Home Sales	March, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales increased 4.7 percent in February following six straight declines. The increase was the twelfth since the series peaked 43 months ago (in July 2005) and the largest since April 2008. The 12-month growth rate in sales improved from −46.1 percent, its lowest level since the 1980 recession, to a −41.1 percent. The number of new homes on the market declined for the 22nd straight month, bringing the supply down to 330,000 units, roughly its average over the 30 years prior to the recent bubble. The decline in inventories mixed with the increase in the sales pace lowered the months of supply at the current sales pace from 12.9 months to a still-elevated 12.2 months. The 12-month growth rate in the median sales prices of new single-family homes declined from −11.0 percent in January to an all time low of −18.1 percent in February.
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Existing Home Sales	March, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales increased 4.4 percent in February, regaining much of January’s 4.7 percent loss. Over the past four months, existing single family home sales have bounced between an annual sales pace of 4.05 million units and 4.25 million units, approximately the pace homes sold at in late 1997. February’s gain brings the series’ 12-month growth rate to −3.6 percent up from −7.1 percent in January and well above the cyclical low of −21.9 percent seen in December 2007. The number of existing single-family homes for sale increased slightly in February but is still down substantially from the peak levels seen in mid-2008. Relative to the sales pace, inventories declined slightly in February but remain elevated at 9.1 months-worth of supply. The median sales price of existing single-family home, which is not seasonally adjusted, was virtually unchanged in February resulting in a 12-month growth rate of −15.0 percent, up from an all time low of −167 percent in January.
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Housing Starts	March, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single-family housing starts increased 1.1 percent in February, their first increase since May and largest since February 2007. While too much should not be made of one month’s worth of data, the fact that single-family starts increased after three consecutive double-digit declines is encouraging. The gain was relatively widespread across regions with only the West posting a decline in single-family housing starts. Multi-family housing starts offered more positive news as they increased by 82.3 percent nationally. While this series is considerably more volatile than the single-family series, February’s gain is still the largest increase since 1990. Combined total housing starts increased 22.2 percent in February following declines of nearly 15 percent in each of the past 3 months. Permits for single-family homes increased 11.0 percent in February the largest increase since 1991.
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Renminbi 101	March, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: China manages the renminbi-dollar exchange rate closely. Between mid-1995 and July 2005, the People’s Bank of China pegged the renminbi at approximately 8.3 per U.S. dollar. Since then, the People’s Bank has loosened its reigns, allowing the renminbi to appreciate to 6.8 per dollar. Many people claim that China still manipulates the rate in an unfair bid, however such claims are not strictly correct. Nevertheless, China has never given the exchange-rate-adjustment mechanism free reign.
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The Latest S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Indexes	March, 2009	Economic Trends	Michael Shenk; Paul W Bauer;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Declining U.S. home prices led the way into the current worldwide economic crisis, and one sign that the crisis is abating will be when these prices begin to stabilize. The December 2008 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes (released February 24, 2009) offered no evidence that this is happening yet.
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Existing Home Sales	February, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales declined 4.7 percent in January effectively reversing December’s 4.7 percent increase. At 4.05 million units annually, January’s sales pace is 10,000 units less than November’s and the lowest since 1997. The median sales price of existing single-family homes decreased for the seventh straight month in January, however the 12-month growth rate in prices ticked up slightly from −14.6 percent to −13.8 percent, the first increase in four months. The number of existing single-family homes on the market for sale was unchanged in January at 3.11 million, but at January’s slower sales pace that amount of inventory represents 9.2 months of supply compared to 8.8 months in December.
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S&P/Case-Shiller HPI	February, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The national S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index declined 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly decline in the short history of the series which began in 1987. On a year-over-year basis, home prices are now down 18.2 percent, also the largest decline on record. The monthly data was a little more encouraging as the 12-month growth rates in each both the 20-city and 10-city composite indexes were down only slightly at −18.5 percent and −19.2 percent, respectively. The FHFA House Price Index declined 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter compared to a decline of 2.6 percent in the third quarter. The four-quarter growth rate in the index declined from −3.9 percent to −4.5 percent in 2008:Q4, a new record low. The purchase-only index—which does not include data from refinancing transactions—declined 3.4 percent over the quarter yielding a four-quarter growth rate of −8.2 percent, also a record low.
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The U.S. Auto Industry	February, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Ford, GM, and Chrysler have struggled for some time, but last fall their situations dramatically worsened. After the auto manufacturers pleaded their cases in December, Congress agreed to extend loans to Chrysler and GM in order to help keep the two companies alive. These three automakers were especially hurt in 2008 when sales declined nearly 25 percent. As sales have declined, Ford, GM, and Chrysler have cut their U.S.-based production in an attempt to adjust to the decreased demand for their vehicles.
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Housing Starts	February, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single-family housing starts declined 12.2 percent in January, their third straight double digit decline. Since reaching an all-time high of 1.8 million units annually in January 2006, single-family housing starts have fallen steadily to an all-time low of 347,000 units annually, an 81.0 percent decline over a 36-month period. Over the past year single-family housing starts have declined by 56.2 percent (the worst 12-month growth rate on record) and the pace of decline has picked up in recent months. The annualized three- and six-month growth rates in single-family starts currently sit at 82.4 percent and 71.0 percent, respectively. Permits for new single-family homes declined 8.0 percent in January to a new all-time low of 335,000 units. The decline in single-family permits has largely mirrored that of single-family starts.
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Weaker Still	February, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: With world trade and industrial production falling precipitously, the International Monetary Fund has again pared its forecast for global economic growth. The agency now expects world economic activity to expand by only 0.5 percent in 2009, the slowest growth rate since World War II. The outlook is highly uncertain with risks clearly to the downside.
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International Trade	February, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased $1.7 billion in December following November’s record $15.6 billion dollar decline. The pullback in imports and exports continued in December, as exports fell 6.0 over the month and imports declined 5.5 percent. Over the past five months, exports have fallen a combined 20.5 percent (or $34.5 billion) while imports have fallen 24.4 percent (or $56.2 billion). December’s figures put the fourth quarter trade deficit at $138.7 billion, nearly $40 billion less than the deficit in the third quarter.
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Construction Spending	February, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending fell 1.4 percent in December as private construction spending declined 1.7 percent. Private residential construction spending declined by 3.2 percent over the month following a 4.1 percent drop in November. On a year over year basis private residential construction spending is down 22.9 percent, up from an all-time growth rate low of −32.2 in July. Private nonresidential construction declined for the third consecutive month, and the fifth time in six months, as it fell 0.4 percent in December. The 12-month growth rate in private nonresidential construction spending is currently at 8.9 percent, down from a high of 25.8 percent a year ago, but still above the average over the past 30 years.
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Dating a Recession and Predicting its Demise	February, 2009		Michael Shenk; Paul W Bauer;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Few were surprised when the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee announced on December 1, 2008, that the U.S. economy was in recession. However, what may have surprised some observers is that the committee dated the last business cycle peak, and hence the beginning of the recession, to December 2007.
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HPI	January, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The 12-month growth rate in the 10-city and 20-city composite S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes declined in November to new lows at −19.1 percent and −18.0 percent, respectively. Both indexes have been declining on a monthly basis since June 2006. All 20 metro areas that make up the two indexes declined in November, and all twenty have negative 12-month growth rates, ranging from −32.9 percent (Phoenix) to −3.3 percent (Dallas). The FHFA monthly Purchase Only House Price Index declined in November as well, resulting a record low 12-month growth rate of −8.7 percent.
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Existing Home Sales	January, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing home sales rebounded in December as they posted a 6.5 percent increase following November’s 9.4 percent decline. On the single-family side, which is often less volatile, sales increased 7.0 percent, negating a significant portion of November’s 8.9 percent decline. Existing single-family home sales had been fairly stable for the past year until November’s large decline. December’s increase was not quite large enough to return the series to its average level over that time but it is still a welcome development. The increase in single-family sales also came with a significant decline in inventories. The number of existing single-family homes for sale declined 12.3 percent while relative to the sales pace, inventories declined from 10.6 months of supply to 8.7 months. The median sales price also declined in December falling from 179.9 thousand to 174.7 thousand. The 12-month growth rate in the median sales price is now −14.8 percent, its lowest level on record.
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Housing Starts	January, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell 15.5 percent in December at a pace of 550,000 units annually, by far the lowest pace on record. The often less-volatile single-family starts series declined 13.5 percent following a 14.2 percent decline in November. Since peaking in January 2006, single-family starts have fallen in 28 of 35 months for a total decline of 78.2 percent. Permits for single family-homes declined 12.3 percent in December, the third consecutive month the series fell by roughly 12 percent.
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International Trade	January, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased $16.2 billion in November to $40.4 billion as imports declined an unprecedented 12.0 percent and exports declined 5.8 percent. The majority of the massive decline in imports was in the industrial supply category, as petroleum related imports declined $13.6 billion, thanks in part to a 28.0 percent decline in oil prices. Imports of consumer goods also saw a considerable decline. Both imports and exports have fallen significantly in each of the past four months as U.S. and foreign demand for goods and services have both declined.
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The Ups and Downs of Current-Account Deficits	January, 2009		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: After reaching a record deficit of nearly $825 billion (annual rate) or 6½ percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005, the U.S. current-account deficit has since narrowed. The connection between current-account deficits and trade patterns, however, does not mean that Americans spend too much and save too little. Maybe America is just a good place to invest.
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Construction Spending	January, 2009		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending decreased 0.6 percent in November, bringing the series down 3.3 percent from a year ago. Total private construction spending declined 1.5 percent in November as private residential construction expenditures declined 4.2 percent over the month. The private nonresidential sector continued to show resilience increasing 0.7 percent in November. Over the past 12 months, private nonresidential spending is up 10.3 percent while the residential series has declined by 23.4 percent.
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Home Price Indexes	December, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Both the 20–city composite and the 10–city composite S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Indexes continued to decline in October falling 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. The underlying data showed that all 20 of the metro areas measured declined over the month, in contrast to recent months which had occasionally shown price increases in select metros. The 12-month growth rates in both composite indexes declined again in October putting the 20–city index’s rate at –18.0 percent and the 10–city index’s rate at −19.1 percent. While both rates set new records for price declines in a year the pace of decline in both 12–month growth rates has slowed some in recent months. The FHFA house price index declined 1.1 percent in October, bringing the 12–month growth rate to a record low of &minus7.5 percent. The FHFA index which includes more data from rural areas but less data on homes purchased with jumbo or unconventional loans showed October price declines in seven of the nine census regions it measures. Prices in New England and the Mountain region were both up slightly in October.
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Housing Starts	December, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts decreased 18.9 percent in November, resulting in the slowest month for homebuilders since the series began in 1959. The often less volatile single-family series fell 16.9 percent to an annual space of 441 thousand units, also the slowest on record. Permits for total and single-family housing units fell 15.6 percent and 12.3 percent respectively in November. All four series are down nearly 50 percent from a year ago and the pace of the decline has shown no signs of slowing.
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Consumer Sentiment	December, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment increased 3.8 points from its recent low of 55.3 to 59.1. The current conditions component of the index increased 11.9 points, one of the largest increases in this part of the index on record, while the expectations component of the index fell 1.5 points. The overall index while up, is still extremely low. The index has only dropped to lower levels in two periods since it began in 1952, those periods being the 1974 recession and the 1980 recession. Median inflation expectations for the next year have decreased substantially from 2.9 percent to 1.7 percent while five–to–ten year expectations dropped from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent.
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International Trade	December, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $0.6 billion in October to $57.2 billion—well above the consensus forecast of $53.5 billion. Both imports and exports have fallen precipitously over the past three months. In October, exports fell 2.2 percent following a 6.4 percent decline in September, while imports dropped 1.3percent in October after a 5.7 percent decline in September. The decline in imports, while not exactly small, was a bit of a surprise as a much larger decline was anticipated. In fact, in real terms imports actually increased, led by an increase in the quantity of petroleum imported over the month. The decline in exports in recent months is of particular concern as export growth had been one of the only bright spots in the recent GDP figures.
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Metro-Area Differences in House Price Indexes	December, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: On the last Tuesday of every month, when the monthly S&P/Case–Shiller housing price indexes are released, newspapers fill up with dour headlines about another new record drop in home prices. While these headlines may be factually correct, it’s important to realize that the numbers being quoted are almost always the composite figures.
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Japan’s Quantitative Easing Policy	December, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The federal funds rate is now at 1 percent, and financial markets expect a further substantial cut. The United States has entered a recession, and the outlook for next year seems so somber that some economists are asking if deflation—a drop in overall prices—is not a distinct possibility. Japan underwent a decade–long odyssey with deflation and the zero–bound problem. The Bank of Japan’s experience during this period offers a guide for getting back to more familiar economic turf.
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Construction Spending	December, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending decreased 1.2 percemt in October, as residential construction fell 3.5 percent, and nonresidential construction fell 0.1 percent. On the private side total spending was down 2.0 percent, while residential and nonresidential were down 3.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. Total private construction spending in August and September was revised up 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. Even with the significant revision private construction spending is down 9.9 percent over the last year, as residential construction is off 24.9 percent and nonresidential construction is up 7.9 percent.
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Existing Home Sales	November, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total existing single–family home sales declined 3.1 percent in October, while single–family sales declined 3.3 percent. The decline in single–family sales brings the 12–month growth rate down to 0.0 percent after it reached into positive territory for the first time in nearly three years in September. Despite October’s decline, the single–family series is still showing signs of stabilization and is up 4.0 percent from its recent low four months ago. Inventories of existing single–family homes for sale held steady for the third straight month at 3.6 million, roughly 70 percent higher than its 2004 average level. Relative to the sales pace inventories increased from 9.4 months to 9.6 months, a level that is below its recent high of 11, but that is still elevated. The 12–month growth rate in the median sales price of existing single–family homes fell to 11.2 percent, its lowest level yet. The median sales price is now at a level last seen in 2004.
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Housing Starts	November, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell 4.5 percent in October while the often less–volatile single–family starts series fell 3.3 percent. The decline in single–family starts came entirely in the South where starts declined 10.5 percent; single–family starts in the other three regions were up a combined 4.6 over the month. The 12–month growth rate in single–family starts was virtually unchanged at −39.9 percent, just slightly above its recent low of −43.1 percent. Permits for single–family homes declined a 14.5 percent in October, the largest single month drop since 1980. Unlike the starts series, this decline was widespread with each of the four census regions posting double digit declines. Since peaking in September 2005, single–family permits have now declined by 74.4 percent.
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Financial Turmoil and Global Growth	November, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: A new IMF report says the turmoil in world financial markets is impeding global economic growth and predicts that subpar growth will likely continue for a fairly prolonged period. Advanced economies are expected to bear the brunt of the slowdown, with most predicted to experience a contraction in 2009. Emerging-market and developing countries will experience a slowing in economic growth as well, although the slowdown is expected to leave their economic growth fairly high relative to their history.
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Trends in the Components in Real GDP	November, 2008		Michael Shenk; Paul W Bauer;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: To get a clue as to where the economy may be headed, we step back to see how the components of GDP have evolved over the past two decades.
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Construction Spending	November, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending decreased 0.3 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in August. Private construction spending increased 0.1 percent in September as a 1.3 percent drop in residential construction was offset by a somewhat surprising 1.2 percent increase in private nonresidential construction spending. The increase on the nonresidential side was somewhat surprising because the series seemed to have taken a downward turn after peaking in June, declining a combined 3.2 percent in July and August. Not too much should be made of one month’s data, but the increase in nonresidential spending is certainly a welcome development, though the series is still 2.1 percent below its June level.
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S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Indexes	October, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Both the 10–city and the 20–city S&P Case–Shiller home price indexes continued to decline in August. The 12–month growth rate in the 10–city index fell from −17.5 percent to −17.7 percent, while the 12–month growth rate in the 20–city index fell from −16.3 percent to –16.6 percent. Both represent all–time lows for year–over–year home price appreciation. The 12–month growth rates in both indexes have been declining since the beginning of 2006, but in the last few months the pace of that decline has slowed somewhat. However, it is still too early to assume this is a sign of prices bottoming out. The 12–month growth rate in the FHFA (formerly OFHEO) total U.S. purchase–only house price index—which includes more rural areas than the S&P/Case–Shiller indexes—fell from −5.5 percent to −5.9 percent in August.
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New Home Sales	October, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single–family home sales increased 2.7 percent in September after falling 12.6 percent in August. The gain was almost entirely seen in the west, as the South was up only slightly and the Northeast and Midwest both saw declines. The 12–month growth rate in sales improved somewhat in September, but at −33.1 percent, it is still very weak and not much above its recent low of −40.2 percent. The median sales price declined in September, bringing it to its lowest level since 2004 and down 9.1 percent from a year ago. The number of homes on the market continued to decline rapidly in September falling by 7.3 percent, the largest change recorded since the series began in 1963. In terms of months’ of supply at the current sales pace, inventories declined by a full month to 10.4 but remain substantially elevated.
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Existing Home Sales	October, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total existing home sales increased 5.5 percent in September, their highest level since August 2007. The generally less–volatile single–family series increased 6.2 percent in September after holding fairly steady over the past 12 months. The increase brings the 12–month growth rate in single–family sales into positive territory for the first time since November 2005. However, the sales pace is still down 27.1 percent from its peak in September 2005. On a year–over–year basis, the median sales price of existing single–family homes was down 8.6 percent in September, just slightly better than the 9.7 percent year–over–year drop in August. The total number of single–family homes on the market held flat in September, resulting in a decrease in the number of months of supply at the current sales pace. Despite the decrease, the level of inventory remains elevated at 9.4 months of supply.
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Housing Starts	October, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell 6.3 percent in September, resulting in a 12–month growth rate of −31.1 percent, above August’s rate of −34.8 percent. The decline was entirely in single-family home starts, which fell 12.0 percent, its largest decline since 2006. The decline brings single family housing starts down to a pace of 544,000 units annually. That is the third slowest pace since the series began in 1959: the only two months when fewer homes were started were October and November 1981 when the annual starts pace was 523,000 and 538,000, respectively. The total number of permits authorized in September fell 8.3 percent, while permits for single-family homes fell 3.8 percent and are now down 38.9 percent from a year ago.
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What Exactly Is a Recession—and Are We in One?	October, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The common definition of a recession, and the one most frequently cited in the media, is a period of two consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP. NBER’s actual definition is fairly vague, which explains why many prefer the shorthand definition, but the idea is fairly simple. A recession is any period when economic activity experiences a prolonged and widespread decline.
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Swap Lines	October, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The Federal Reserve is using swap lines to provide U.S. dollar liquidity to other central banks dealing with the global financial crisis.On September 29, the Fed offered swaps totaling $620 billion dollars to nine key central banks through April 2009, if necessary.
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Construction Spending	October, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending was virtually flat in August after falling 1.4 percent in July. On the private side, total construction spending fell 0.3 percent over the month following July’s downwardly revised 2.4 percent drop. Private residential construction increased 0.3 percent in August, the first such increase since March 2007 and only the second increase since the series peaked in March 2006. Private nonresidential construction spending declined for the second consecutive month in August, dropping 0.8 percent on top of July’s downwardly revised 1.1 percent decline. Prior to July, nonresidential construction spending had been increasing steadily and had not declined in roughly a year and a half. Private nonresidential construction spending in both June and July was revised up with the release of August’s data. However, since June’s data was revised up more substantially than July’s data there is a more noticeable drop of in spending from June to July than originally reported. Overall nonresidential construction is still up 13.0 percent from a year ago, but the recent declines may be some cause for concern should spending not pick up in the coming months.
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New Home Sales	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales fell 11.5 percent in August following a 4.0 percent gain in July. Despite the large drop, the series’ 12–month growth rate was virtually unchanged at the extremely low level of −34.5 percent. Since peaking just over three years ago, new single–family home sales have fallen a total of 63.3 percent from an annual pace of 1.4 million units to just 460 thousand units. The number of new homes for sale continued to decline in August, falling 4.5 percent. Compared to the sale, however, pace inventories are still elevated as the months’ supply increased slightly to 10.9 months, just below its cyclical peak of 11.2 months.
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Existing Home Sales	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total existing home sales fell 2.2 percent in August, but the 12-month growth rate in sales increased from −12.8 percent to −10.7 percent, its highest level since July 2007. Existing single–family home sales fell 1.3 percent in August after increasing 3.5 percent in July. Year–to–date existing single–family home sales have been virtually flat, however the 12–month growth rate, while up from August, is still negative at −9.6 percent and the median sales price of these homes is down a record 9.7 percent. The level of inventory of existing single–family homes on the market fell in terms of both actual homes and relative to the current sales pace. However, both measures still remain substantially elevated.
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Housing Starts	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total private housing starts fell 6.2 percent in August, as multi-family starts dropped 15.1 percent over the month. The less volatile single–family series fell a more modest 1.9 percent following a 3.2 percent decline in July. The permit data behaved similarly in August: total permits issued fell 8.9 percent, while single–family permits fell a 5.1 percent. A recent change in New York City building codes may be continuing to have an effect on the data as multi–family starts and permits were down significantly in the northeast region again in August.
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PPI	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The finished goods Producer Price Index (PPI) fell an annualized 10.5 percent in August after double digits gains in each of the prior three months. The culprit behind the large decrease was once again energy prices which fell an annualized 43.0 percent over the month after increasing an annualized 72.8 percent over the previous three months combined. The PPI less food and energy (core PPI) increased an annualized 2.9 percent in August down from an 8.2 percent gain in July. The 12-month growth rates in the headline and core PPI are both currently elevated at 9.7 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.
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Consumer Sentiment	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment increased substantially in early September from 63.0 to 73.1, its highest level since January. From a historical perspective the index still remains very low; its long-run average is in the 85-95 range and it last dipped below 75 in 2005 and 1992. The median year-ahead inflation expectation from the underlying survey fell from 4.8 percent to 3.6 percent, while the median 5- to 10-year-ahead inflation expectation fell from 3.2 percent to 2.9 percent.
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International Trade	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $3.4 billion in July to $62.2 billion—its highest level since March 2007. Exports continued to grow in July posting a 3.3 percent gain, bringing them up 20.1 percent from a year ago. Import growth, which had been somewhat sluggish in recent months, outpaced export growth in July, increasing 3.9 percent and is now up 16.8 percent from a year ago. The international trade release also contained revisions to data covering all of 2008. In total the revision increased the trade deficit by $6.3 billion, with the first quarter deficit being revised up by $2.2 billion and the second quarter being revised up $4.1 billion. The newly revised numbers now show the trade deficit increasing by $3.4 billion in the second quarter, compared to the previously reported increase of $1.6 billion.
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Global Developments in the Economic Outlook	September, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The dollar’s recent depreciation and exceptionally strong economic growth abroad have been a boon to U.S. economic growth, but that may now be changing.
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Update on the Housing Market	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Over the past two weeks, a lot of data on the housing market has been released, giving us a fairly comprehensive look at where the market stands through July. Here’s a brief overview of that data and the picture it paints of the housing market.
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Construction Spending	September, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending fell 0.6 percent in July following a 0.3 percent gain in June. Private sector construction spending fell 1.4 percent in July, as residential construction spending declined 2.3 percent, and nonresidential spending declined 0.7 percent. The decline in private residential construction was hardly a surprise, as it had fallen in every month since March 2006. Private nonresidential construction spending on the hand snapped a streak of six consecutive monthly gains with its decline in July. On a year–over–year basis, nonresidential construction spending is still up 16.0 percent while its residential counterpart is down 27.5 percent.
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New Home Sales	August, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New home sales increased 2.4 percent in July, following a 2.1 percent decline in June. Over the past three months, new home sales have been basically flat, however over the past six months, sales are still down 13.7 percent. That’s an improvement over the 6-month growth rates we’ve seen over the last year, which dipped as low −26.6 percent, but still not a substantial enough improvement to warrant much optimism going forward. The 12–month growth rate increased slightly to −35.3 percent in July, but remains close to its recent low of −40.2 percent. The number of new single–family homes for sale continued to decline in July, dropping 5.3 percent, the largest decline since 1963. Coupled with the increased sales pace, the decline helped bring the months of supply at the current sales pace down from its recent highs but at 10.1 months this measure of inventory remains elevated.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	August, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The quarterly S&P/Case–Shiller home price index continued to decline in the second quarter, but did so at a slower rate than in previous quarters. The four–quarter growth rate fell to a new low of −15.4 percent down from −14.2 percent in 2008:Q1. The series is not seasonally adjusted, so quarter-to-quarter moves shouldn’t be given all that much weight. But for the sake of comparison; in the second quarter Case-Shiller home prices fell an annualized 9.0 percent compared to annualized declines of 19.9 percent and 24.3 percent in the 2007:Q4 and 2008:Q1, respectively. The other major home price index, published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) also continued to decline in the second quarter, but with no significant change in pace compared to previous quarters. The four-quarter growth rates in both the purchase only index, which doesn’t include refinancing data, and the total index, which does, dropped to new lows at −4.8 percent and −1.7 percent, respectively.
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Existing Home Sales	August, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Both total existing home sales and single–family sales increased 3.1 percent in July, furthering hopes that the housing market is beginning to stabilize. Through the first seven months of 2008, existing single–family homes increased in four months, compared to a total of just three monthly increases in 2006 and two in 2007. In fact, existing single–family home sales have been fairly stable since September of 2007, bouncing around between an annual sales pace of 4.4 million and 4.3 million. Positive news aside, the 12–month growth rate in sales, while up from a low of −22.9 percent in February, is still substantially negative at −12.4 percent and inventories remain near their recent peaks. The high level of inventories in particular puts a dour note on this report, as it points to the potential for continued stress in the housing market.
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International Trade	August, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit declined $2.4 billion in June, as exports increased 4.0 percent and imports increased by 1.8 percent. The increase in exports was the largest since 2004 and was driven by increases in excess of 5.0 percent in four out of the five major categories : foods, feeds and beverages, industrial supplies and materials, automotive vehicles and parts, and consumer goods. The fifth major category, capital goods excluding automobiles, increased 3.0 percent over the month. Despite consecutive monthly declines, the nominal trade deficit was up a slight $1.6 billion dollars in the second quarter as a whole, but is still down nearly $21 billion (on a quarterly basis) from its all–time high in 2006.
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The Net International Investment Position	August, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The United States has run a current account deficit almost continuously since 1982. We have financed this deficit by issuing financial claims, such as stocks, bonds, and bank accounts, to the rest of the world. Since 1986, foreigners have held more claims on the United States than U.S. residents have held on them, or, in the jargon of international finance, the United States has maintained a negative net international investment position. Last year, that negative position reached a record $2.5 trillion.
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Construction Spending	August, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction spending decreased 0.4 percent in June after being virtually unchanged in May. On the private side, construction spending decreased 0.4 percent, as a 0.8 percent increase in nonresidential construction was offset by a 1.8 percent decline in residential construction. The decline in private residential construction spending was the 27th consecutive decrease, during which time spending has fallen roughly 45 percent. Over that same time period, private nonresidential construction spending has increased in 24 months and is up about 43 percent.
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New Home Sales	July, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales fell 0.6 percent in June, following a 1.7 percent decline in May. The small decline helped the 12-month growth rate in sales increase slightly from −37.8 percent to −33.2 percent. Sales in both the Northeast and the Midwest saw improvements in June, but were more than offset by moderate declines in the much larger South and West. The number of new single-family homes for sale in June fell 5.3 percent, the largest decline in this measure of inventory since 1963 and bringing the 12-month growth rate in inventory down to −21.5, its lowest level on record. Despite the rapid decline in new single-family homes, on-the-market inventories remain elevated when compared to the current sales pace.
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Existing Home Sales	July, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total existing home sales fell 2.6 percent in June, negating May’s 2.0 percent increase. The often less-volatile single-family component of the series fell by 3.2 percent in June, reversing a 1.6 percent gain in May. Even with June’s declines, both the total and single-family sales series have shown noticeable stability in recent months. What remains to be seen is whether this stability marks the trough of the decline or if this is simply another period similar to August 2006-February 2007, when sales looked to have turned a corner only to suddenly enter another period of rapid decline. Inventories of homes for sale, both in terms of houses on the market and months of supply at the current sales pace, increased to their highest levels yet this cycle.
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International Trade	July, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased $0.7 billion in May, following a $4.0 billion dollar increase in April. Export growth slowed from April’s 3.7 percent rate, rising only 0.9 percent in May, but still outpaced a 0.3 percent increase in imports. Import growth was mixed across categories, with food, feeds, and beverages, and consumer goods showing the largest increases at 3.6 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. Export growth was also mixed across categories, with the largest gain coming from a 3.8 percent increase in exports of industrial supplies and materials. The trade deficit peaked about two years ago at $67.0 billion but has been fairly steady over the past 20 months at around $60 billion; it currently sits at $59.8 billion.
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Why Hasn’t the United States Intervened?	July, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The dollar’s precipitous fall since February 2002, particularly against the euro, has renewed interest in foreign-exchange-market intervention, that is, official purchases and sales of foreign exchange designed to influence dollar exchange rates. But such intervention is unwise for two reasons.
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Construction Spending	July, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total construction expenditures fell 0.4 percent in May, as public construction expenditures increased 0.4 percent and offset a portion of the 0.7 percent decline in private construction. Since April 2006, when private construction spending began to fall, spending has fallen an average of 0.8 percent per month and is down a total of 18.5 percent. Private residential construction spending continued to fall in May, declining 1.6 percent over the month, slightly better than the −2.2 percent average monthly decline it’s seen since April 2006. Private nonresidential construction rose 0.2 percent in May, its fifth consecutive month of growth and twentieth in the past two years. The Census Bureau revised the way it calculates the construction expenditures series. Private residential construction spending no longer includes improvements on rental, vacant, or seasonal properties. Improvements on owner occupied homes are still included. The revision, which affects data back to 1993, lowers the level of spending but does not materially affect any of the recent trends.
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Personal Income	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Personal income growth increased an annualized 24.8 percent in May, however government stimulus checks were a major reason for the uncharacteristically rapid rate of growth. Still, there was strength outside of the government’s stimulus program. Total employee compensation increased an annualized 3.6 percent following essentially no change in April. Wage and salary income also increased over the month, growing at a 3.7 percent annualized pace, after falling at a 1.0 percent pace in May. On the disposition side of the report, real personal consumption expenditures grew an annualized 4.4 percent in May, no doubt reflecting at least some impact from the stimulus program. Also as a result of stimulus checks, May’s savings rate (personal savings as a percent of disposable personal income) jumped from 0.4 percent to 5.0 percent. The PCE price index increased and annualized 5.0 percent in May reflecting a rapid increase in food and energy prices. Excluding these two categories, core PCE increased at only a 1.4 percent annual rate. The 12–month growth rate for the headline and core PCE now stand at 3.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
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Consumer Sentiment	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 3.4 point to 56.4 in June, down an additional 0.3 points from the preliminary report. The decline brings consumer sentiment to its lowest level since 1980, and its third lowest level since the series began in 1952. The median year–ahead inflation expectation decreased slightly from 5.2% to 5.1%, while the median 5– to 10–year–ahead inflation expectation was unchanged at 3.4%. Both readings are elevated compared to those of recent years.
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Existing Home Sales	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total existing home sales rose 2.0 percent in May after falling 1.0 percent in April. The less–volatile single–family component of existing home sales increased 1.6 percent following April’s 0.5 percent reduction. The increase in existing single–family home sales was the third in the last five months; although the 12–month sales rate is still −14.5 percent, the series is up 2.1 percent for the year to date. Inventories of existing single–family homes for sale fell slightly in terms of both actual units and months of supply on the market, but both measures remain elevated. The median sales price of existing single–family homes sold in May was down 6.9 percent from a year earlier.
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Real GDP	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: First–quarter real GDP growth was revised up from 0.9 percent to 1.0 percent with the release of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate. The revision, which was widely expected, resulted from an increase in final sales that more than offset a reduction in estimates of inventory growth. Personal consumption expenditures, business investment in equipment and software, and state and local government spending were all revised up, whereas net exports was largely unchanged and inventory investment was revised down. The four–quarter growth rate in core PCE was unchanged at 2.0 percent. Although this was the “final” estimate of first quarter GDP growth, it will be revised next month with the release of the second–quarter advance estimate, as part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s benchmarking process, which will affect data going back to 2005.
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New Home Sales	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Sales of new single–family home fell 2.5 percent in May following a 4.8 percent rise in April. The 12–month growth rate in sales rebounded slightly to −40.3 percent from a cyclical low of −42.1 percent but remains lower than at any time since 1981. The number of new single–family homes on the market continued to fall in May and is now down 20 percent from its peak. However, sales continued to decline more rapidly than inventories; as a result, the supply of homes for sale (at the current pace) increased to 10.9 months’ worth in May, its second–highest level since 1981. The median sales price of new single–family homes was down 5.7 percent from a year earlier.
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Durable Goods	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New orders for durable goods were virtually unchanged in May after April’s 1.0 percent decline. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, durable goods orders fell 0.9 percent. Orders for capital goods increased 1.5 percent, thanks to a 10.9 percent increase in orders for defense capital goods. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which some believe to be an indicator of business investment, fell 0.8 percent. Shipments of durable goods fell 1.1 percent in April, while shipments excluding transportation were down 0.2 percent.
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Home Price Indexes	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The monthly OFHEO and both the 10– and 20–city composite Case–Shiller Home Price indexes fell further in April. The OFHEO index now shows a 4.6 percent 12–month decline in home prices, and both Case–Shiller composite indexes show a much greater decline. According to the 20–city composite, home prices have fallen 15.3 percent over the last 12 months; the 10–city composite shows a decline of 16.3 percent.
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Consumer Confidence	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell 7.7 points in June to 50.4, its lowest level since 1992. Both the present–situation component and the expectations component fell sharply, leaving the expectations component at a historic low and the present situation not far from one. Over the last 12 months, the consumer confidence index has declined 52.1 percent, the sharpest 12–month decline on record, but roughly the rate of decline seen around the 1974, 1980, and 1991 recessions.
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Where’s the Spillover from Housing?	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Recently, the argument has been made that outside of the housing market, the economy is actually doing pretty well. Looking at the GDP numbers, that argument appears to hold some weight. Once you take into account the direct impact of large declines in residential investment, GDP growth looks pretty good over the past two quarters. With homes so important to a household’s financial situation, how is it that a serious downturn in housing can have such a limited effect on the rest of the economy?
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Exchange–Rate Pass–Through to Import Prices	June, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: A dollar depreciation tends to raise the dollar price of all goods and services imported into the United States. But the full amount of the depreciation rarely gets passed through to the dollar prices of imports, and lately the amount of pass-through seems to have declined along with worldwide inflation.
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Trade Deficit	June, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $4.4 billion in April, the largest monthly increase in the deficit since 2005. Export growth was strong in April, increasing $5.0 billion, a 3.3 percent gain. Import growth was even stronger however, as nominal imports rose 4.5 percent, a $9.4 billion gain. The increase in imports was widespread, with the largest area of growth in industrial supplies and materials, which increased $5.6 billion in April, a 9.1 percent increase. Imports of consumer goods saw the slowest growth, rising only $0.6 billion , a 1.7 percent increase from March. The large increase in the trade deficit was almost entirely the result of price changes. After taking account of prices, the real trade deficit was virtually unchanged, as imports increased $3.8 billion and exports increased $3.9 billion.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index fell a record 6.7 percent in the first quarter of 2008, bringing the four-quarter growth rate down to −14.1 percent, also a record. The four-quarter growth rate has fallen significantly in each of the last 10 quarters and has been negative for five consecutive quarters.
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New Single-Family Home Sales	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales increased 3.3 percent in April after falling a downwardly revised 11.0 percent in March. The annualized level of sales—while up from March’s revised level—was actually unchanged from March’s original estimate. On a year-over-year basis, sales hit a new cyclical low of 42.0 percent below last April’s level. The inventory of new single-family homes for sale relative to the current sales pace fell from its recent high of 11.1 months to a still-elevated 10.6 months. In terms of actual homes for sale, inventories fell for the twelfth consecutive month but still remain higher than at any time prior to 2005. The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in April was up 1.5 percent from a year ago, and in March the median sales price was down 14.1 percent from a year ago.
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Existing Homes Sales	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 0.5 percent in April after a 2.5 percent decline in March. While existing single-family home sales are still down 16.1 percent from a year ago and 31.5 percent from their peak, the pace of decline has slowed in recent months. The three-, six-, and nine-month growth rates are all up from recent lows. Inventories of existing single-family homes for sale increased substantially in April in terms of both numbers of units and months of supply. Inventory levels by both measures are now at their highest levels since the housing downturn began. The median sales price of existing single-family homes sold in April was down 8.5 percent from a year ago.
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Existing Home Sales	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 0.5 percent in April after a 2.5 percent decline in March. While existing single-family home sales are still down 16.1 percent from a year ago and 31.5 percent from their peak, the pace of decline has slowed in recent months. The three-, six-, and nine-month growth rates are all up from recent lows. Inventories of existing single-family homes for sale increased substantially in April in terms of both numbers of units and months of supply. Inventory levels by both measures are now at their highest levels since the housing downturn began. The median sales price of existing single-family homes sold in April was down 8.5 percent from a year ago.
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OFHEO Housing Price Index	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) purchase-only index of home prices declined 1.7 percent in the first quarter, after a 1.4 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2007. According to the purchase-only index, which does not include price data from refinancing transactions, home prices are now down a record 3.1 percent from a year ago. The OFHEO total house-price index, which includes purchase price data as well as data from refinancings, was virtually unchanged from a year ago, the worst-ever year-over-year performance in that index as well.
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Housing Starts	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single–family housing starts fell 1.7 percent in April to their lowest level since 1991. However, it was the smallest decline in single–family housing starts since June 2007. Also on the positive side, permits for single–family homes rose in April for only the fourth time since the series began its long descent in October 2005. April?s 4.0 percent increase in permits was by far the largest of those gains, although it still leaves the level of permits issued at levels last regularly seen in 1990.
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Bifurcation?	May, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The International Monetary Fund lowered its projections for world economic growth. No surprise there! But the report also suggested that the traditional correlation between growth in advanced-developed countries and growth in developing countries was weakening. Global trade gains and macroeconomic policy improvements have reduced—but not eliminated—the developing countries’ dependency on the developed world. Now that’s interesting!
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The Employment Situation, April	May, 2008		Michael Shenk; Beth Mowry;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: The April Employment Report came in better than anticipated, with a total loss of just 20,000 nonfarm jobs from payrolls. Revisions to February and March numbers increased the losses in those months by just 8,000. The unemployment rate edged slightly lower, from 5.1 percent to 5.0 percent over the month.
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Construction Spending	May, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total private construction spending fell 1.7 percent in March, as a 4.6 percent decline in private residential construction was partially offset by a 1.9 percent increase on the nonresidential side. The decline on the residential side was the largest monthly decline since 1981. However, total private construction activity in January and February was revised up a combined 1.4 percent, while the residential and nonresidential sides were revised up 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent respectively.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	April, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: According to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index, home prices fell 2.7 percent in February and are down 12.7 percent from a year ago, a record for the series, which begins in 2000. The 10-city index, which has a longer history, also reached a new historic low, with a 12-month growth rate of -13.6 percent. Moreover, looking at the annualized 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month growth rates, the pace of decline in both indexes seems to be increasing rather than decreasing.
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New Home Sales	April, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales fell 8.5 percent in March to their lowest level since the 1991 recession. At 526 thousand units annually in March the pace of sales is down 62.1 percent from its peak in July 2005. The inventory of unsold new single-family homes relative to the current sales pace jumped up to 11 months, the third-highest level ever recorded. However, the actual number of homes on the market continued to fall in March and is down 18.3 percent from its peak in July 2006. The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in March fell 13.3 percent from a year ago.
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Existing Home Sales	April, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 2.7 percent in March, after increasing a combined 3.5 percent in the previous two months. The growth rate in existing single-family homes, while still negative, has stabilized some of late. The six-month growth rate in sales rose to -2.2 percent in March--up from a low of -17.1 percent in August 2007. The inventory of single-family homes on the market increased slightly over the month, in terms of both units and months of supply, but is still down from its peak levels. The median sales price of existing single-family homes rose slightly in March, but the 12-month growth rate was largely unchanged at -8.3 percent.
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Housing Starts	April, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell 11.9 percent in March, but the numbers were distorted by a 24.6 percent decline in multi-unit starts. The less volatile, single-family component of housing starts fell 5.7 percent, following a similar decline in February. The pace of decline in single-family starts has not slowed recently. While the 6-month growth rate has been fairly stable at around the −45 to −50 percent range (annualized), the 12-month growth rate reached a new low for the recent downturn of 43.6 percent in March. Permits for single-family homes, another indicator of construction activity, fell 6.2 percent in March and are off 46.4 percent from a year ago.
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International Trade	April, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $3.4 billion in February following a $1.1 billion increase in January. Export growth remained strong, increasing 2.0 percent in February to bring the 12-month growth rate in exports up to 20.8 percent, the fastest growth in exports since the series began in 1992. Import growth increased 3.1 percent in February, outpacing even the rapid increase in exports. The major growth on the import side came from consumer goods, automotive goods, and capital goods. Imports of petroleum goods fell 5.4 percent.
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Should the Fed Prop Up the Buck?	April, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
	Abstract: Congress mandates the Federal Reserve “to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates?” Recently, some observers have suggested that the Federal Reserve pay more attention to the dollar, but adding an exchange-rate objective to the existing menu could greatly complicate the Fed’s ability to hit its key domestic objectives. A lot depends on what the reasons behind the dollar’s depreciation are.
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Construction Spending	April, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total private construction spending fell 0.5 percent in February, after declining in excess of 1.0 percent in three of the previous four months. Private residential construction fell 0.9 percent over the course of the month, its smallest decline since April 2007. The nonresidential side fell for the third consecutive month, albeit a meager 0.1 percent, after increasing in 28 of the previous 29 months.
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Home Price Indexes	March, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
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Housing Starts	March, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell a modest 0.6 percent in February, due in large part to a 14.4 percent increase in multi-unit starts. The less volatile single-family series fell 6.7 percent over the month to a new cyclical low. Permits for single-family homes, another indicator of new housing activity, fell 6.2 percent in February. The multi-unit permits series did not fare as well as its counterpart in starts, falling10.8 percent over the month.
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International Trade	March, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade balance was virtually unchanged in January, as a 1.6 percent increase in exports was offset by a 1.3 percent increase in imports, resulting in a very modest $0.3 billion increase in the trade deficit. The increase in imports was led by a 10.6 percent nominal increase in petroleum products. In real terms, petroleum imports still increased 8.8 percent in January, but they were only up 0.4 percent from a year ago. Export growth continued to remain strong in January, as exports increased for the eleventh straight month. At 16.6 percent, the 12-month growth rate in exports is at its highest level since 2004.
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Are We Importing Inflation?	March, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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New Home Sales	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales fell 2.8 percent in January to their lowest level since 1995. Since peaking in July 2005, sales have fallen 57.7 percent, and over the most recent 12 months sales have fallen by a third. The inventory of new homes for sale relative to the current sales pace increased to a cyclical high of 9.9 months in January, a level last seen in 1981.
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OFHEO Home Price Index	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Purchase-Only Home Price Index declined for the second consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2007. The index declined 1.3 percent over the quarter, considerably worse than the third quarter’s 0.3 percent decline. The four-quarter growth rate in the index dipped into negative territory for the first time, posting a 0.3 percent decline over the year. The OFHEO total index, which includes refinancings, showed less weakness, increasing 0.1 percent over the quarter and 0.8 percent over the year.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index declined 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, after posting smaller declines in each of the previous five quarters. The decline brings the four-quarter growth rate in the index to −8.9 percent, by far the worst growth rate since the series began 20 years ago.
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Existing Homes Sales	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Sales of existing single-family homes increased 0.5 percent in January, bringing the three-month growth rate to −2.1 percent, the slowest decline since February 2007. Despite January’s moderate sales increase, the 12-month growth rate in sales declined slightly to −22.4 percent, the lowest since 1989. The inventory of existing single-family homes on the market reversed its course and increased in January, after falling in each of the past three months. At 3.65 million units (up from 3.39 million in December), it currently represents 10.1 months of sales at the current sales pace, which is slightly ahead of December’s equivalent of 9.4 months.
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Housing Starts	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts were largely unchanged in January after a decline of nearly 15 percent in December. The less volatile, single-family series declined 5.2 percent; its eighth consecutive decline. Single-family starts peaked in January 2006 and since that time have fallen 60 percent, to their lowest level since 1991. Permits for single-family also fell 4.1 percent over the course of January.
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Import and Export Prices	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Import prices surged ahead in January, rising 22.9 percent (annualized rate), after a 2.8 percent decrease in December. The jump in prices was driven largely by a 90.6 percent upswing in petroleum prices, which pushed the year-over-year growth rate in import prices up to an all-time high of 13.7 percent. Nonpetroleum imports increased 8.0 percent during the month, mostly due to a 60.6 percent advance in industrial supplies and materials. Export prices spiked up 15.0 percent in January, their highest spike since January 1989. Over the past 12 months, prices for exported goods rose 6.7 percent.
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International Trade	February, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit declined $4.4 billion in December, after increasing in each of the previous three months. Over the course of the month, exports increased 1.5 percent, their tenth consecutive monthly increase, while imports fell 1.1 percent. With the final month of 2007 reported, the annual trade deficit stands at $711.6 billion, $46.9 billion less than the 2006 trade deficit and the smallest annual deficit since 2004. The fairly substantial decline in the annual figure marks the first time since 2001 that the trade deficit has fallen.
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Chinese Inflation and the Renminbi	February, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Housing Markets	January, 2008		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
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Monetary Policy and the Dollar?s Depreciation	January, 2008		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Housing Starts	December, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single-family housing starts continued to decline in November, dropping 5.4 percent from a downwardly-revised October figure. So far this year, single family housing starts have declined in nine out of eleven months and have fallen by a third to their lowest level since 1991. Permits for single-family homes, which some believe to be a less volatile indicator of the demand for new construction, fell 5.6% in November and are also at their lowest level since 1991.
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International Trade	December, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The trade deficit increased $0.7 billion in October to end the month at $57.8 billion, as a 0.9 percent increase in exports was outpaced by a 1.0 percent increase in imports. Despite two small increases in the trade deficit over the two months, October?s deficit is still down considerably from the peak deficit of $67.6 billion seen in August 2006.
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Dollar Depreciations and Inflation	December, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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The Housing Market	December, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
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Trade and the Dollar	December, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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House Price Index	November, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The OFHEO House Price Index experienced its first quarterly decline since 1994, as it fell 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2007. The purchase-only index, which excludes refinances but only goes back until 1991, fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, matching its largest decline on record. On a year-over-year basis, both indexes still show home prices appreciating at a modest 1.8 percent rate in the third quarter. Other measures of home prices show outright price declines from a year ago.
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Existing Homes Sales	November, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales were unchanged in October, after falling a total of 25.7 percent over the previous 7 months. Year-to-date sales are down an annualized 24.1 percent, while the median sales price is down an annualized 8.1 percent. The inventory of existing single-family homes increased from 10.1 months to 10.5 months in October, which is more than double the inventory level seen at any point in 2005.
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The Employment Situation, October	November, 2007		Michael Shenk; Yoonsoo Lee;	Economic Trends
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Housing Cycles	November, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
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Is It the Best of Times or the Worst?	November, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Jumbo Mortgages and Mortgage Market Conditions	October, 2007		Michael Shenk; Andrea Pescatori;	Economic Trends
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New Home Sales	October, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales increased 4.8 percent in September, after falling 7.9 percent in August. Despite the increase, new single-family home sales remain weak, at levels last seen in 1997. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down 23.3 percent while the median price of a new single-family home has risen 5.0 percent. The inventory of new homes for sale relative to the current sales pace fell somewhat in September, from 9.0 months to 8.3 months, but still remains elevated.
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Existing Home Sales	October, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 8.6 percent in September, after falling a combined 18.5 percent over the previous six months. September's decline was the second largest since 1989, the only larger decline having occurred in March 2007. Year to date in 2007, existing single-family home sales have fallen at an annualized rate of 26.2 percent. Sales peaked 24 months ago in September 2005 and have since fallen at an annualized rate of 16.6 percent. However, the current downturn is not the steepest on record; over the 47 month period between June 1978 and May 1982, existing single-family home sales fell at an annualized rate of 18.0 percent. Inventories of existing single-family homes on the market jumped from an already high 9.3 months to 10.2 months, their highest level since 1986.
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Housing Starts	October, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts fell 10.2 percent in September, but the numbers were distorted by a 34.3 percent decline in multi-unit starts. Single-family starts, which tend to be less volatile than their multi-unit counterpart, fell a less shocking 1.7 percent over the course of the month. Even so, the decline brings single-family starts down to their lowest level since 1993. Permits for single-family homes, which generally tend to track starts fairly well, fell 7.1 percent in September to their lowest level since 1992.
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International Trade	October, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit fell $1.4 billion in August to $57.6 billion, its lowest level since January. Export growth was fairly weak in August, increasing only 0.4 percent. But when combined with a 0.4 percent decline in imports, the total effect on the deficit was fairly significant. Around this time last year the trade deficit fell sharply from its all-time high of $67.6 billion. In the 11 months since, the deficit has held relatively steady around $59.0 billion.
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The Employment Situation, September	October, 2007		Michael Shenk; Murat Tasci;	Economic Trends
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Head'n South	October, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Who Cares about the Housing Market?	October, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
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Labor Turnover	October, 2007		Michael Shenk; Murat Tasci;	Economic Trends
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Exisiting Home Sales	September, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales continued their descent in August, falling 3.8 percent over the course of the month to their lowest level since 2002. August’s decline was the sixth consecutive monthly decline and brings sales down an annualized 18.2 percent on the year. Over the past six months sales have fallen at an annualized pace of 33.1 percent; that is the steepest rate of decline over any six-month period since 1989. Inventories of existing single-family homes increased over the month from 9.2 months to 9.8 months, their highest level since 1989 and considerably above the average of 5.4 months seen over the past five years.
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New Home Sales	September, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Weakness in the market for new homes continued, as new single-family home sales fell 8.3 percent in August, more than reversing July?s 3.8 percent increase. The decline brought sales down to a new low for this housing cycle, to a level last seen in 2000. Sales growth varied tremendously by region with the Northeast and Midwest posting substantial gains, while the South and West posted even larger (in nominal terms) declines. The 3-, 6- and 12-month growth rates in sales on the national level all remained significantly negative in August, but all were above recent lows, implying that the rate of decline in sales may be slowing. Inventories of new single-family homes increased from 7.6 months to 8.2 months, just below their recent peak.
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Housing Starts	September, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single-family housing starts fell 7.1 percent in August after falling 7.3 percent in July. The consecutive months of steep declines brought the series down to its lowest level since 1993. In the 21 months since peaking, single-family housing starts have fallen at a 29.2 percent annualized pace. So far in 2007, housing starts are on pace to decline 29.0 percent. Adding to the negative outlook, permits for single-family homes, which are considered by some to be a leading indicator for future homebuilding, fell 8.1 percent in August. The decline in permits was the largest since 1995 and brought the number of permits issued to its lowest level since 1995 as well.
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Current Account	September, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The current account deficit declined $6.3 billion to 5.5 percent of GDP in the second quarter, down from 5.7 percent of GDP in the first quarter, to its lowest level relative to GDP since the third quarter of 2005.
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Revisions to the Employment Report	September, 2007		Michael Shenk; Yoonsoo Lee;	Economic Trends
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The Employment Situation, August	September, 2007		Michael Shenk; Yoonsoo Lee;	Economic Trends
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International Trade	September, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit fell $183 million to $59.2 billion in July, as exports increased a relatively large 2.7 percent and imports increased 1.8 percent. Over the past 10 months the trade deficit has held fairly steady at just over $59 billion, down considerably from the peak deficit of $67.6 billion seen in August 2006.
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Housing Markets	September, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Economic Trends
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U.S. International Investment Position	September, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Existing Home Sales	August, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales continued to decline in July, falling a more modest 0.4 percent during the course of the month compared with June, when sales fell 3.3 percent. Over the past 22 months, with the exception of relatively large back-to-back gains in January and February, existing single-family home sales have fallen steadily, resulting in an annualized growth rate of ?11.8 percent over the period. Over the same period, the median sales price has fluctuated somewhat between around $230 thousand and $210 thousand but on average has remained relatively flat. Months of inventory increased to a recent peak of 9.2 months, more than double the 4.4 month average inventory level seen in 2005.
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New Home Sales	August, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single-family home sales rose 2.8 percent in July, as a healthy increase in the West boosted the national number. Despite July’s increase the 3-, 6- and 12-month growth rates in sales remain negative. New single-family home sales peaked 24 months ago, in July 2005, and have since fallen at an annualized rate of 20.9 percent. Over the first 12 months of this period, sales fell 30.2 percent, compared to a more modest, yet still substantial, 10.2 percent decline over the most recent 12-month period. Currently, sales are at a level last seen regularly during and just prior to the 2001 recession.
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Housing Starts	August, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single-family housing starts fell 7.3 percent in July, their lowest level in over 10 years, while permits for single-family homes fell 1.6 percent, their lowest level in more than 12 years. Single-family starts peaked in January 2006 before proceeding to fall 32.4 percent over the rest of the year. Year-to-date in 2007 housing starts are off a slightly more modest 13.8 percent.
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The Dollar’s Depreciation and Inflation	August, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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New Home Sales	July, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single–family home sales fell 6.6% in June after falling 2.2% in May. Combined May and June’s declines have negated almost all of April’s large, 10.0% gain and bring the current sales pace down 40.0% from its historical peak. Inventories of new single–family homes, as measured by the current sales pace, increased slightly in June but remain just under the recent high seen in March.
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Existing Home Sales	July, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: As reported by the National Association of Realtors, existing single–family–home sales fell 3.8 percent in June, following May’s 0.5 percent decline. June’s decline brings the series down to its lowest level since late 2002 and 20.2 percent below its peak in September 2005. The median sales price of existing single–family homes increased 3.3 percent (to $230,100), the fifth consecutive monthly increase.
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Housing Starts	July, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts increased 2.3 percent in June, while single–family starts were effectively unchanged. Single–family starts are currently down 37.3 percent from their peak in January 2006 but have stabilized somewhat in recent months. Over the past five months, single–family starts have increased 2.5 percent. Permits for single–family homes, which some claim to be an indicator of future construction activity, fell 4.1 percent in June and have shown no real signs of stabilizing. Since peaking in September 2005, permits have steadily fallen 43.3 percent.
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Sovereign Wealth Funds	July, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Existing Single–Family Home Sales	June, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single–family home sales fell 8.9 percent in May (annualized rate) after falling a combined 20.6 percent (annualized rate) over the previous two months. Since peaking in September 2005, existing single–family home sales have fallen in 13 out of 20 months and is down just over 17 percent. Over the same period, the median sales price of existing single–family homes has fallen 2.7 percent.
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Nominal Trade Deficit	June, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit decreased $3.9 billion in April after increasing a combined $5.6 billion in February and March. Export growth was weak, increasing a modest 2.3 percent (annualized), while imports dropped 20.6 percent. The decline in imports was led by a $1.5 billion decline in consumer goods and a $1.0 billion decline in auto–related imports. Imports of petroleum–related products were largely unchanged. Since reaching record highs last summer, the trade deficit has fallen steadily and is currently down about $9.0 billion.
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Housing	June, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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Is Foreign Exchange Intervention a Good Idea?	June, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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OFHEO	June, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: According to the OFHEO House Price Index, home price appreciation slowed to its lowest quarterly growth rate in over a decade, slipping from 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2007. On a year–over–year basis, the rate of growth declined for a fifth straight quarter: Home prices are currently just 4.3 percent higher than year–ago levels.
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New Home Sales	May, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New single–family–home sales increased 16.2 percent (nonannualized) in April, after falling in each of the previous three months. The increase, which was the largest monthly gain since 1993, was led primarily by the South, where new single–family–home sales increased 28.8 percent. Since peaking in July 2005, new single–family–home sales have fallen steadily: Even with April?s unusually large increase, the series is still down nearly 30 percent from its peak.
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Existing Home Sales	May, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single–family–home sales fell 2.4 percent in April, following March?s 9.0 percent decline. April's decline brings the series down to its lowest level since early 2003 and 17.1 percent below its peak in September 2005. The median sales price of existing single–family homes increased 2.0 percent (to $220,500), the third consecutive monthly increase.
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International Trade	May, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit increased $6.0 billion to $63.9 billion in March, as a 1.8 percent increase in exports was more than offset by a 4.5 percent increase in imports, the largest monthly rise since late 2002. Imports of goods, which generally account for about 85 percent of overall imports, jumped 5.1 percent during the month. Of that gain, roughly half can be attributed to imports of petroleum products, which rose 17.6 percent in March.
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Do Workers Benefit from Globalization?	May, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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New Home Sales	April, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New home sales increased by 2.6 percent in March after having declined 18 percent since the beginning of this year. The sales pace has fallen steadily since mid-2005 and is currently 37.2 percent below the last peak seen in the series, in July 2005. The median sales price of new homes increased 0.9 percent in March, its fifth increase in the past six months. On a year–over–year basis, prices are up 6.4 percent, despite sales being down 23.5 percent. The months’ supply of unsold new homes at the current sales pace fell slightly from its recent peak of 8.1 months, to 7.8 months.
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New Home Sales	April, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New home sales increased by 2.6 percent in March after having declined 18 percent since the beginning of this year. The sales pace has fallen steadily since mid-2005 and is currently 37.2 percent below the last peak seen in the series, in July 2005. The median sales price of new homes increased 0.9 percent in March, its fifth increase in the past six months. On a year-over-year basis, prices are up 6.4 percent, despite sales being down 23.5 percent. The months? supply of unsold new homes at the current sales pace fell slightly from its recent peak of 8.1 months, to 7.8 months.
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Existing Home Sales	April, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales fell 9.5 percent in March, the largest decline in this series in nearly 20 years. The decline more than offset the steady gains seen in the previous two months and brings the annualized sales pace down to 5.32 million units, its lowest level since mid 2003 (and 15.6 percent below its peak in September 2005). The National Association of Realtors attributed the abnormally large decline in sales to unseasonably cold weather in February, as well as restrained subprime lending.
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Existing Home Sales	April, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single–family home sales fell 9.5 percent in March, the largest decline in this series in nearly 20 years. The decline more than offset the steady gains seen in the previous two months and brings the annualized sales pace down to 5.32 million units, its lowest level since mid 2003 (and 15.6 percent below its peak in September 2005). The National Association of Realtors attributed the abnormally large decline in sales to unseasonably cold weather in February, as well as restrained subprime lending.
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Housing Starts	April, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Single–family housing starts rose 2.0 percent (nonannualized rate) in March, following a 6.7 percent increase in February. Prior to this release, single–family housing starts had not increased for two consecutive months since July 2005. Despite the recent rebound, housing starts remain about 33 percent below their peak of 1.814 million units, reached in January 2006, and are similar to levels seen in the mid–1990s.
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Industrial Production	April, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Industrial production fell 0.2 percent in March, following a 0.8 percent increase in February. The decline reflected a 7.0 percent plunge in utilities production, which partially offset February's 7.6 percent jump. The Federal Reserve Board attributed this variation to swings in temperature from below-seasonal norms in February to above-seasonal norms in March. Meanwhile, manufacturing production posted a strong 0.7 percent increase, reflecting broad-based gains across manufacturing industries. Capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector posted its first increase of the year, rebounding to 80.1, after falling in five of the six previous months.
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Business Investment	April, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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Deficits and the Dollar	March, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Asian Reserves	March, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Existing Home Sales	March, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single-family home sales rose 3.7 percent in February after a 3.1 percent increase in January. The increase brought the annual sales pace up to 5.88 million, exactly halfway between the peak sales pace, seen in September 2005, and the trough, seen in September 2006. On a year-over-year basis, sales are still off 3.4 percent, and the median sales price is down 1.5 percent. Nonetheless, sales have increased in four of the past five months, and prices in two of the past three.
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New Home Sales	March, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New home sales continued to decline in February, falling 3.9 percent during the month, following a 15.8 percent decline in January. The recent declines bring new home sales down 38.0 percent from their peak in July 2005 and to their lowest level since 2000. The months' supply of new homes on the market jumped for the second straight month: At 8.1 months, inventory is nearly double its 10-year average.
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International Trade	March, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The nominal trade deficit fell $2.3 billion to $59.1 billion in January, as exports increased a moderate 1.1 percent and imports fell 0.5 percent. Despite a decline in crude oil prices, petroleum imports increased 5.4 percent, partially offsetting a 1.8 percent decline in all other imports. The trade deficit has now fallen in four of the last five months and is nearly $10 billion lower that its August 2006 peak of $68.9 billion.
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A Tale of Two Houses	March, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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OFHEO House Price Index	March, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The OFHEO House Price Index increased at a 4.5 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, following a 4.2 percent rise in the third quarter of 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the rate of growth in home prices continued to decline for the fourth consecutive month: Home prices are now 5.9 percent higher than year-ago levels.
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Will the Euro Supplant the Dollar?	February, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Existing Home Sales	February, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Existing single–family home sales increased 3.5 percent in January—the largest increase for the series in nearly three years. However, sales are down 9.7 percent from their peak in September 2005. Existing single–family home sales, which have been down from year–ago levels in 13 out of the last 14 months, declined 4.2 percent on a year–over–year basis in January. Median single–family home prices fell 5.3 percent during the month—the largest monthly decline in the series, which began in 1968—and are down 3.5 percent from a year–ago levels.
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Import Prices	February, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Import prices fell about 14 percent (annualized rate) in January, reflecting a 60 percent decline in petroleum import prices. Nonpetroleum import prices were unchanged in January and up 1.6 percent on a year–over–year basis. Consumer goods import prices, excluding autos, were up a strong 3.6 percent in January, and the 12–month growth rate for these imports continues to rise, reaching 1.5 percent in January.
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Is Manufacturing Going the Way of Agriculture?	February, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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Trade Deficit	February, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: The trade deficit increased $3.1 billion to $61.2 billion in December as moderate export growth was outweighed by strong import growth. Almost half of the month's gain in total imports was due to a rise in petroleum imports, which increased $1.6 billion or 7.6 percent during the month, reflecting an increase in the price of oil. Despite the trade deficit gain in December, the quarterly trade deficit is at its lowest level since 2005:Q2.
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China s Economy	February, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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New Homes Sales	January, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: New home sales grew 4.8 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.12 million units. Sales in the Northeast and Midwest were strong, while sales in the South were virtually unchanged, and sales in the West were down a bit. Nonetheless, new home sales are up 14.4 percent from their recent trough in July 2006, yet still down 18.1 percent from their peak in July 2005. The median sales price of new homes rose 0.5 percent to $234,390 in December but is still down 1.5 percent from a year ago.
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Industrial Production Closes 2006 in Fine Form	January, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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Some Say Housing Numbers Encouraging	January, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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December Housing Starts	January, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total housing starts increased 4.5 percent in December, as multifamily–unit starts increased 30.6 percent. Single–family starts fell 4.1 percent over the month, taking back a little of November's 8.0 percent gain. On a year–over–year basis, single–family starts are down nearly 25 percent. Housing permits increased 5.5 percent in December, and single–family permits increased 1.2 percent. Both increases were the first increases seen in the series since January.
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Industrial Production	January, 2007		Michael Shenk;	Data Update
	Abstract: Total industrial production significantly exceeded forecasts, rising 0.4 percent in December following three consecutive months of decline. Production in the manufacturing sector rebounded after also falling for the previous three months.Mining production was robust, while utility production fell, no doubt reflecting unseasonably warm weather in December. Durable goods manufacturing production was especially strong last month, with large gains in motor vehicles and parts, and in computer and electronic product production.
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Current Account Sustainability	January, 2007		Michael Shenk; Owen F Humpage;	Economic Trends
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Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income and Consumption Reports	January, 2007		Michael Shenk; Ed Nosal;	Economic Trends
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