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Analysis, commentary, and data on issues that concern the residents and businesses of the eastern Midwest — Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Economic Conditions

The Concentration of Poverty within Metropolitan Areas
Not only has poverty recently increased in the United States, it has also become more concentrated. This Commentary documents changes in the concentration of poverty in metropolitan areas over the last decade. The analysis shows that the concentration of poverty tends to be highest in northern cities, and that wherever overall poverty or unemployment rates went up the most over the course of the decade, the concentration of poverty tended to increase there as well. Read more (PDF)

Economic Growth

GDP Growth in U.S. Metropolitan Areas during the Recovery
On the whole, GDP growth in U.S. metropolitan areas was strong in the first two years of the recovery. But growth rates varied widely in different places. Some metro areas continued to struggle with the effects of the housing boom and subsequent bust. Others benefitted from natural resource extraction or high-tech industries. We look at some other factors associated with these different growth rates. Read more
  • The Relationship between City Center Density and Urban Growth or Decline (PDF)
  • Neighborhood Dynamics and the Distribution of Opportunity (PDF)
  • Marginal Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity (PDF)
  • See all Economic Growth content

Education

Educational Attainment and Demographic Differences in Employment
It is well-known that employment outcomes such as unemployment rates and employment-to-population ratios vary markedly across demographic groups. Differences in unemployment rates are especially pronounced across age and racial groups. It is also well-known that employment outcomes depend significantly on educational attainment, and that levels of educational attainment vary across race and ethnicity. In this article, we examine these factors. Read more

Energy

The Fourth District: The Next Big Energy Producer?
When asked about domestic oil and natural gas production and where most of it occurs, people will likely reply: the region surrounding the Gulf of Mexico. This response is correct. Historically, states in the Fourth District have also played an important role in oil and natural gas production. The Fourth District is now positioned to make a comeback as a major domestic energy producer due to exploration and production in the Marcellus and Utica shales. Read more

Financial Literacy

Foreclosure

Recent Fourth District Foreclosure Trends
Some U.S. states have seen their foreclosure rates fall since the housing bust and recession. Some have seen them rise. In the Fourth District, for example, foreclosure rates remain at or near historic highs. Which outcome a state will experience seems to have a lot to do with the kind of process that is used in the state to resolve foreclosures. Read more

Government Finance

The Impact of Sequestration on Federal Outlays in Fourth District Metropolitan Areas
During the previous decade, federal expenditures and transfers flowing into the metro areas of the Fourth District rose by 48 percent. By 2010, nine of the district’s ten largest metro areas were receiving inflows of federal funding larger than one-fifth of their gross metropolitan product. Federal money has helped smooth the district’s economy through both the business cycle and structural changes. However, reliance on federal spending means the districts’ metro areas will feel the impact of the sequestrations mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011. Read more
  • Who’s Afraid of Good Governance? State Fiscal Crises, Public Pension Underfunding, and the Resistance to Governance Reform (PDF)
  • Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Goals in Government Procurement Contracting: An Analysis of Bidding Behavior and Costs (PDF)
  • Private-Activity Municipal Bonds: The Political Economy of Volume Cap Allocation (PDF)
  • See all Government Finance content

Housing

Five Policy Considerations for Improving Ohio’s Housing Markets
Ohio's housing markets still face a number of challenges, such as elevated foreclosure rates and a prevalence of vacant, low-value housing. This paper suggests five areas where policy interventions are worth considering. Read more
  • Assessing the Evidence on Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity (PDF)
  • Land Bank 2.0: An Empirical Evaluation (PDF)
  • Did Local Lenders Forecast the Bust? Evidence from the Real Estate Market (PDF)
  • See all Housing content

Labor Markets, Unemployment, and Wages

Employment Growth Slows in Ohio
Employment in Ohio has grown 2.7 percent since the start of the recovery (June 2009 to March 2013). Over the same period, national employment grew almost a percentage point more. Ohio’s employment growth to this point in the recovery puts it close to the middle of the distribution. Read more

Manufacturing

Recent Manufacturing Employment Growth
Over the past few months, the labor market has begun to show signs of stabilization. Lost in the excitement of multiple positive employment reports has been growth in the manufacturing industry. Even though industrial production numbers have been trending upward since last June, national manufacturing employment has only recently posted gains, adding 101,000 jobs in the first four months of 2010, while Fourth District states have been at the forefront of manufacturing employment growth. Read more

Metropolitan Area Profile

Regional Banking and Financial Institutions

Changes in Household Borrowing across Metropolitan Areas
Much of the increase in household debt last decade was driven by mortgage borrowing, which accounts for between 70 and 80 percent of U.S. household liabilities. Because this borrowing was driven by (and also drove) high home-price appreciation in some parts of the country, there is a clear geographic pattern to changes in credit usage over the last decade. Read more

Trade

Exports from the Fourth District States
In the Fourth District states of Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, exports make a significant contribution to the economy. The total value of goods exported by these states is approximately $122 billion per year, which equals just under ten percent of their combined Gross State Products. We examine the District’s exports following the recession and what may lie ahead. Read more