Patricia Waiwood |

Research Analyst


Patricia Waiwood, Research Analyst

Patricia Waiwood is a research analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Her work focuses primarily on macroeconomics, financial economics, and banking.

A native of Cleveland, she graduated with honors from Case Western Reserve University in May 2011, receiving her BA in economics and banking & finance.

  • Fed Publications
  • Other Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

2014-01 ; Mehmet Pasaogullari; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Some analysts pay particular attention to oil prices, thinking they might give an advance signal of changes in inflation. However, using a variety of statistical tests, we find that adding oil prices does little to improve forecasts of CPI inflation. Our results suggest that higher oil prices today do not necessarily signal higher CPI inflation next year, although they do help to explain short-term movements in the CPI. [ Online extras (tables with results of all model specifications)]

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November, 2013 ; Lakshmi Balasubramanyan; Economic Trends
Abstract: Ensuring adequate liquidity is an integral part of a financial institution’s management. But how much liquidity is enough? A financial firm is considered liquid if it can obtain immediately spendable funds at reasonable cost exactly when it needs them. Here we make a high-level assessment of how banks’ liquidity positions have changed since 2009.

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June, 2013 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: For a few years before the recession, Americans had reason to feel richer. Their wealth was nearly seven times their income in 2005, and the situation remained that way until the recession began. Following the 2008 financial crisis, the ratio of wealth-to-income fell back to its long-term trend. Since then, household wealth has been growing faster than income, having reached, once again, nearly six times income in the first quarter of 2013. Does the similarity of this growth now and before the crisis give cause for concern?

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March, 2013 ; Mehmet Pasaogullari; Economic Trends
Abstract: In February, the CPI stood at 2.0 percent year-over-year, and the core CPI, which is simply the headline CPI measure excluding food and energy prices, was also 2.0 percent over the same period. How can we predict what inflation will be in the more distant future, especially in light of the Fed’s accommodative policies?

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March, 2013 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: In the years preceding the stock market and housing bubbles, household wealth grew faster than incomes, leading Americans to believe that they were getting richer. As the bubbles burst, the nation’s wealth-to-income ratio took a dive and returned to its long-term trend. The adjustment took place as households constrained their spending and reduced their debt. Although consumption expenditures have rebounded since hitting the trough, growth has not been consistent.

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March, 2013 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the past month, the yield curve has moved up, getting somewhat steeper in the process, as long rates moved more than short rates. Calculations based on the yield curve suggest that real GDP will grow at about a 0.6 percent rate over the next year, and the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next February has fallen.

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February, 2013 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,working paper no. 13-01 ; Jean Burson; John B Carlson; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Working Papers
Abstract: States' unfunded pension obligations to their current and retired employees have exploded in recent years to levels that are estimated to be between $750 billion and $4.4 trillion. In theory, this massive debt should have implications for states' ability to meet their financial obligations and a measurable impact on funding costs. Yet, we find no evidence that municipal bond markets are pricing the risks to states' fiscal health arising from these large obligations.

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January, 2013 ; Mehmet Pasaogullari; Economic Trends
Abstract: The annual inflation level as measured by the CPI was 1.8 percent as of November 2012, whereas the CPI excluding food and energy, usually referred to as the core CPI, was 1.9 percent. These latest figures, along with developments over the past year, show that the inflation scare of recent years has yet to be supported by the data.

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January, 2013 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: Economists study national savings—the share of national output not consumed by households, businesses, or the government—because it is the main source of funds available for domestic investment in new capital goods (used to produce other goods and services). Capital accumulation, in turn, is a key driver of productivity gains and rising living standards. Put simply, saving finances investment. This article examines recent trends in national savings, and household savings in particular.

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October, 2012 ; Mehmet Pasaogullari; Economic Trends
Abstract: Market-based measures of inflation expectations reflect what investors anticipate inflation will be in the future. These measures rose in the days after September 13, when the Federal Reserve announced a third round of large-scale asset purchases and decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at an exceptionally low level at least through mid-2015.

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October, 2012 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: Three rounds of quantitative easing since the official end of the recession 39 months ago testify to the fact that the economy is languishing. To evaluate the possibility of a sustainable recovery in the near future, we take a closer look at consumer finances.

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June, 2012 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: The recently published results of the Federal Reserve’s triennial 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances show that many families cut up their credit cards during the financial crisis. The number of families holding credit card debt of any amount declined to its lowest levels in more than 20 years. Meanwhile, families in the lowest-income percentile have been reporting an increasing use of installment debt since the 2007 survey and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey recently reported a sharp increase in demand for consumer loans.

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April, 2012 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends

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April, 2012 ; Mehmet Pasaogullari; Economic Trends
Abstract: Some prices and price indexes have shot up recently, but measures of core inflation have remained low. For more insight into where the rate of inflation is likely to head in the future, we look at a couple of measures that tell us how markets are currently pricing future inflation. These measures are inflation swap rates and breakeven inflation rates.

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March, 2012 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends

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March, 2012 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: Following a peak at 14 percent in the first quarter of 2010, credit card interest rates have fallen over the past two years. When interpreted jointly with the increasing balances, this development suggests that credit is becoming more available to consumers. We take a look at the factors that affect the availability and cost of credit cards.

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February, 2012 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends

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January, 2012 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends

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January, 2012 ; Mehmet Pasaogullari; Economic Trends
Abstract: Annual inflation as measured by the Consumer price index (CPI) has declined in each month since September, following decreases in food and energy prices. As of November, the annual inflation rate is 3.4 percent. Despite this reassuring signal in the wake of the first half of the year, when the CPI was increasing, some households and market participants are still worried about an impending inflationary period. Here we review various measures of inflation expectations, because expectations about future inflation are both an important predictor and a factor in future inflation.

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December, 2011 ; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends

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December, 2011 ; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Economic Trends
Abstract: In the years preceding the stock market and housing bubbles, household wealth grew faster than incomes, leading Americans to believe that they were getting richer. As the bubbles burst, the wealth-to-income ratio took a dive and returned to its long-term trend. The adjustment took place as households constrained their spending and reduced their debt. After peaking in 2008, household consumption expenditures dropped slightly (1.69 percent), hitting a trough in 2009. Yet since then, the wealth ratio has stabilized, and consumption expenditures have resumed growth, already climbing 2.2 percent beyond the pre-recession peak.

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; Joseph G Haubrich; Economic Trends
Abstract: Over the past month, the yield curve has gotten noticeably steeper, with long rates moving up and short rates barely budging. The three-month Treasury bill rose to 0.08, and the ten-year rate rose to 1.87. The slope increased to 187 basis points. Calculations based on the yield curve suggest that real GDP will grow at about a 0.6 percent rate over the next year and the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next December is 7.1 percent.

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Title Date Publication Author(s) Type
Do Public Pension Obligations Affect State Funding Costs?

 

Forthcoming Municipal Finance Journal ; Jean Burson; John B Carlson; Ozgur Emre Ergungor; Journal Article

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