Keeping you up to date on the latest data releases.
- Durable Goods
After a drop of 13.1 percent (non-annualized) in August, new orders for durable goods were back in positive territory in September, increasing 9.9 percent, the largest one month increase since January of 2010. Over the past year, new orders are up 2.5 percent, an improvement over a 12-month percentage change of −6.7 percent in August. Orders for transportation goods, a typically noisy component of overall orders, were a primary contributor to both the decline in August and the increase in September. They fell 33.7 percent and increased 31.7 percent in August and September, respectively. New orders excluding transportation goods were up 2.0 percent in September, and are down 1.6 percent since last year. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used to evaluate the near-term outlook in equipment and software investment, were flat in September following an increase of 0.2 percent in August and are down 7.4 percent since September of 2011. The year-over?year change in new orders for non-defense capital goods exluding aircraft has been negative in each of the last four months. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.8 percent in September, following a decline of 2.9 percent in August, and are up 6.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which maps directly into GDP, were down 0.3 percent, following declines of 1.6 and 1.2 percent in July and August, respectively, and are up 0.9 percent since last year. The near-term trend in the year-over-year changes for this series has slowed since earlier in the year. The current three-month trend is at 1.8 percent, compared with a first quarter average of 8.1 percent and a second quarter average of 6.4 percent. Inventories increased 0.3 percent in September, following increases of 0.9 percent in July and 0.6 percent in August, and are up 5.6 percent since September of 2011.