Daniel Hartley |

Research Economist


Daniel Hartley, Research Economist

Daniel Hartley is a research economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He is primarily interested in urban/regional economics and labor economics. His current work focuses on crime, public housing, and neighborhood housing market dynamics.

He completed his PhD at the University of California, Berkeley. He has an M.B.A. in economics and finance from the University of Chicago and an M.Eng. and a B.S. in electrical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

July, 2014 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 14-06 ; Justin Gallagher; Working Papers
Abstract: Little is known about how affected residents are able to cope with the financial shock of a natural disaster. We investigate the impact that flooding from a major US hurricane had on household finance. Spikes in credit card borrowing and overall delinquency rates for the most flooded residents are modest in size and short-lived. Greater flooding results in larger reductions in total debt. Lower debt levels appear to be driven by homeowners using flood insurance to repay their mortgages rather than to rebuild. Debt reductions are larger in census tracts where mortgages were likely to be originated by nonlocal lenders. Online appendix

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2013-11 ; Kyle Fee; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Four years into the economic recovery, housing markets have finally started to improve. While many indicators of activity indicate recent growth, comparing over time and across the United States suggests that many regional housing markets are looking better now only in comparison to where they were during the recession. The recovery in housing markets does appear to be gaining steam, but it remains a work in progress in many places.

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May, 2013 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 13-07 ; T. William Lester; Working Papers
Abstract: This paper explores the degree to which gentrification impacts local labor markets. It begins by describing the nature of employment change in one archetypical gentrifying neighborhood—Chicago's Wicker Park—to motivate the central hypothesis that gentrification is associated with industrial restructuring. Next, a detailed analysis is presented on the long-term employment changes in neighborhoods that have experienced gentrification during the 1990s across a sample of 20 large central cities. This analysis shows that employment grew slightly faster in gentrifying neighborhoods than other portions of the central city. However, jobs in restaurants and retail services tended to replace those lost in goods-producing industries. This process of industrial restructuring occurred at a faster rate in gentrifying areas. Thus gentrification can be considered a contributory and catalytic factor in accelerating the shift away from manufacturing with urban labor markets.

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2013-06 ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: Many Rust-Belt cities have seen almost half their populations move from inside the city borders to the surrounding suburbs and elsewhere since the 1970s. As populations shifted, neighborhoods changed—in their average income, educational profile, and housing prices. But the shift did not happen in every neighborhood at the same rate. Recent research has uncovered some of the patterns characterizing the process.

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June, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-13 ; Kyle Fee; Working Papers
Abstract: In this paper we contrast the spatial patterns of population density and other demographic changes in growing versus shrinking MSAs from 1980 to 2010. We find that, on average, shrinking MSAs show the steepest drop in population density near the Central Business District (CBD). Motivated by this fact, we explore the connection between changes in population density at the core of the MSA and MSA productivity. We find that changes in near-CBD population density are positively associated with per capita income growth at the MSA-level.

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February, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 12-05 ; Veronica Guerrieri; Erik Hurst; Working Papers
Abstract: When a city experiences a decline in income or population, do all neighborhoods within the city decline equally? Or do some neighborhoods decline more than others? What are the characteristics of the neighborhoods that decline the most? We answer these questions by looking at what happened to neighborhoods within Detroit as the city experienced a sharp decline in income and population from the 1980s to the late 2000s. We find patterns of changes in income and population that are consistent with the model and empirical patterns of gentrification presented in Guerrieri, Hartley, and Hurst (2011), only playing out in reverse. (Data description)

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2011-27 ; Kyle Fee; Economic Commentary
Abstract: In recent decades, some cities have seen their urban centers lose population density, as residents spread farther out to suburbs and exurbs. Others have kept populous downtowns even as their environs have grown.

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November, 2011 Vol. 2, No. 3 ; Forefront
Abstract: Why economists pay attention to the labor force participation rate.

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December, 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper, no. 10-22R ; Dionissi Aliprantis; Working Papers
Abstract:

This paper estimates the effect that the closure and demolition of roughly 20,000 units of geographically concentrated high-rise public housing had on crime in Chicago. We estimate local effects of closures on crime in the neighborhoods where high-rises stood and in proximate neighborhoods. We also estimate the impact that households displaced from high-rises had on crime in the neighborhoods to which they moved and neighborhoods close to those. Overall, reductions in violent crime in and near the areas where high-rises were demolished greatly outweighed increases in violent crime associated with the arrival of displaced residents in new neighborhoods.

Note: An online appendix that accompanies this paper is available.

Note: This paper was originally posted in December 2010 under a different title: “Blowing It Up and Knocking It Down: The Effect of Demolishing High-Concentration Public Housing on Crime.” and is available here.


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2010-15 ; Economic Commentary
Abstract: A record number of mortgage loans are either in default or in danger of being defaulted upon. Many of the properties that back these loans will end up going through the foreclosure process. A growing body of research shows that foreclosed homes sell at a discount and that foreclosures have a negative impact on the value of other homes that are nearby. The effect on nearby property values happens for two different reasons, but my recent work suggests that one or the other predominates depending on certain characteristics of the neighborhood where the foreclosures are occurring. This finding implies that different approaches might be required to mitigate the negative effects of foreclosures in different neighborhoods.

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September, 2010 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper, no. 10-11R ; Working Papers
Abstract: A number of studies have measured the negative price effects of foreclosed residential properties on nearby property sales. However, only one study beside this one addresses the mechanism responsible for these effects. I measure separate effects for different types of foreclosed properties and use the estimates to decompose the effects of foreclosures on nearby home prices into two components. One component is due to the additional available housing supply and the other is due to a disamenity stemming from deferred maintenance or vacancy. I estimate that each extra unit of supply decreases prices within 0.05 miles by about 1.2% while the disamenity stemming from a foreclosed property is near zero. [This paper was updated in July 2013.]

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February 1, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 1008R ; Veronica Guerrieri; Erik Hurst; Working Papers
Abstract: In this paper, we begin by documenting substantial variation in house-price growth across neighborhoods within a city during citywide housing price booms. We then present a model which links house-price movements across neighborhoods within a city and the gentrification of those neighborhoods in response to a citywide housing-demand shock. A key ingredient in our model is a positive neighborhood externality: individuals like to live next to richer neighbors. This generates an equilibrium where households segregate based upon their income. In response to a citywide demand shock, higher-income residents will choose to expand their housing by migrating into the poorer neighborhoods that directly abut the initial richer neighborhoods. The in-migration of the richer residents into these border neighborhoods will bid up prices in those neighborhoods, causing the original poorer residents to migrate out. We refer to this process as "endogenous gentrification." Using a variety of data sets and using Bartik variation across cities to identify city-level housing demand shocks, we find strong empirical support for the model's predictions. [Note: An appendix that accompanies this paper is available.]

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