| Title |
Date |
Publication |
Author(s) |
Type |
| Import Prices
|
March, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices fell 0.3 percent (nonannualized) in February, following a 1.3 percent rise in January, pulling the 12-month growth rate down slightly to 11.2 percent. The series’ first decline in seven months is mainly due to a 2.2 percent drop in petroleum prices, though a 0.8 percent decline in industrial supplies and materials prices also contributed to the drop. Nonpetroleum import prices inched up 0.2 percent, and are up 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. Export prices declined 0.5 percent in January, as agricultural commodities prices fell 3.8 percent to their lowest level since April. The 12-month growth rate of export prices slipped from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent.
|
top |
| International Trade
|
March, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit narrowed by $2.6 billion to $37.3 billion in January following two months of widening. Since reaching its recent low of $25.8 billion in May, the deficit has seesawed but has generally been trending upward toward pre-recession levels. Perhaps the most surprising part of the report is the decline of both imports and exports. Imports tumbled for the first time since August, slipping 1.7 percent, led by a 3.0 percent decrease in capital goods and an 8.1 percent drop in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines. Exports fell 0.3 percent after rising for eight straight months, as a 0.7 percent decline in goods outweighed a 0.4 percent rise in services. Still, the 12-month growth rates of both imports and exports are at their highest levels since August 2008, reaching 11.9 percent and 15.1 percent, respectively.
|
top |
| Euro Problems
|
March, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Whether a country is better or worse off in a monetary union like the euro zone depends on whether the gains from giving up monetary-policy sovereignty exceed the costs of losing an important parameter for economic adjustment. Monetary unions are not one-size-fits-all arrangements. Having a common currency confers key benefits on the euro-zone countries. Having a common currency, however, can also impose a serious cost.
|
top |
| Personal Income
|
March, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Nominal personal income rose 0.1 percent (nonannualized) in January, the smallest of six consecutive increases. This follows a downwardly revised increase of 0.3 percent in December and brings the series’ 12-month growth rate to 1.1 percent, its first positive growth rate since December 2008. Private industry wages and salaries rose a relatively strong 0.3 percent. Disposable personal income fell 0.4 percent, its first loss since July. Personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell 0.9 percentage points to 3.3 percent, the lowest level since October 2008, though it is still well above the 1.4 percent savings rate seen at the beginning of the recession. Nominal personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5 percent for the third time in four months. “Real” personal consumption, which adjusts for price effects, climbed 0.3 percent in January to its highest level since May 2008, though its 12-month growth rate is 0.3 percentage point lower than last month’s, at 1.4 percent.
|
top |
| PCE
|
March, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The PCE price index rose 2.1 percent (annualized rate) in January, following an upwardly revised 1.7 percent increase in December. PCE prices are up 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis for the second straight month. Excluding food and energy prices, “core” PCE was virtually unchanged in January, at 0.1 percent, following a 1.1 percent increase in December. The 12-month growth rate of core PCE ticked down one percentage point to 1.4 percent, while over the past 3 months core PCE is up only 0.2 percent, the lowest level in a year.
|
top |
| Import Prices
|
February, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices climbed 1.4 percent (nonannualized) in January, following a 0.2 percent rise in December. The sixth consecutive monthly increase pulled the series’ 12-month growth rate up to 11.5 percent, a far cry from the July’s record low of −19.2 percent. The overall increase is largely due to a 4.8 percent jump in petroleum prices, as nonpetroleum import prices increased only 0.6 percent. The 12-month growth rate of nonpetroleum import prices is positive for the first time since December 2008, at 1.2 percent. Export prices climbed 0.8 percent in January, led by a 1.9 percent rise in industrial supplies and materials prices, bringing the series’ 12-month growth rate up slightly to 3.4 percent.
|
top |
| International Trade
|
February, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit widened by $3.8 billion to $40.2 billion in December, following a $3.2 billion widening in November. The deficit is at its highest level in twelve months, though it is still nowhere near its oil-price induced recent high of $64.9 billion reached in July 2008. Exports jumped 3.3 percent in December, the largest increase since March 2007. The increase is the result of a 4.9 percent leap in exports of goods, as exports of services were essentially unchanged. Imports rose 4.8 percent, led by a 10.1 percent jump in industrial supplies and materials. Crude oil purchases soared by 16.9 percent, as the U.S. imported 31,621 more barrels in December than November. The 12-month growth rates of both imports and exports are in positive territory for the first time since November 2008, at 4.6 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively.
|
top |
| Imports and Economic Growth
|
February, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: A quick look at the latest GDP data might suggest that imports are slowing the domestic recovery. A quick look might get it wrong.
|
top |
| Import and Export Prices
|
January, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices were unchanged in December, following a 1.6 percent increase in November. This is the first month without growth in import prices since July, largely because of a 2.0 percent decline in the price of petroleum imports. Still, the series’ 12-month growth rate jumped from 3.7 percent to 8.6 percent. Accordingly, nonpetroleum import prices rose (0.5 percent), pulling the 12-month growth rate up to −0.2 percent. Export prices increased 0.6 percent in December after climbing 0.9 percent in November, led by a 1.8 percent rise in industrial supplies and materials, bringing the 12-month growth rate to 3.4 percent. Agricultural prices climbed 2.0 percent while nonagricultural prices increased for the ninth straight month, by 0.5 percent.
|
top |
| International Trade
|
January, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit widened by $3.2 billion to $36.4 billion in November, following a $2.5 billion narrowing in October. The deficit, which has alternated between widening and narrowing every month since July, has been creeping back up toward pre-recession levels from June’s recent low of $25.8 billion. Exports rose by 0.9 percent, their seventh straight monthly increase, and were led by a 5.1 percent jump in exports of industrial supplies. A 2.6 percent rise in imports marks the third straight monthly increase, led by a 6.8 percent leap in imports of crude oil. Exports of automobiles in November soared 9.0 percent while imports of automobiles slipped by 0.3 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the growth rates of both imports and exports are at their highest levels since October 2008, at −5.5 percent and −2.3 percent, respectively.
|
top |
| The Dollar Carry Trade
|
January, 2010 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Many attribute the dollar’s recent decline to a relatively easy U.S. monetary policy that is fueling a dollar carry trade. The dollar carry trade refers to a set of foreign-exchange transactions that seem to exploit an economic anomaly and entail substantial risk. Perhaps that is why some people fear that the carry trade could unwind quickly and pose adverse consequences for global currency markets.
|
top |
| Real GDP
|
December, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The final estimate for real GDP in the third quarter came in below expectations at 2.2 percent, 0.6 percentage point (pp) lower than the preliminary estimate and an even more significant 1.3 pp below the advance estimate. The lower estimate reflects downward revisions to fixed business investment, private inventories, personal consumption expenditures, and government spending. A downward revision to nonresidential investment subtracted 0.2 pp from real GDP growth, as a 4.1 percent loss was revised to a 5.9 percent loss, though this is still much better than the 9.6 percent drop in the second quarter and the near 40 percent plunge in the first quarter. Private inventories in the preliminary estimate were shown as having fallen by $133.4 billion in the third quarter, while the final estimate changed this number to $139.2 billion, slicing 0.2 pp from output growth. Real consumption growth was revised from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent during the quarter, taking away 0.1 pp from real GDP growth, and a downward revision to government spending from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent also shaved 0.1 pp from real GDP growth. Both exports and imports were revised up slightly, resulting in net exports being essentially unchanged. The year-over-year growth rate in real GDP stands at −2.6 percent, up from a postwar low of −3.8 percent in the second quarter.
|
top |
| Current Account
|
December, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The current account balance widened by $10.1 billion in the third quarter, its first widening since 2008:Q2. This follows a $6.5 billion narrowing in the second quarter to a recent low of $98.0 billion. The widening is largely due to an increase in the deficit on goods from $115.5 billion to $132.1 billion, as goods exports increased 7.2 percent and goods imports grew 9.5 percent. Both imports and exports were led by increases in industrial supplies and materials. The service surplus grew $0.6 billion to $34.8 billion, partially offsetting the widening, as service exports increased 2.6 percent and service imports rose 3.2 percent. The deficit in net unilateral transfers grew for the second month in a row to $34.4 billion, the highest level on record. U.S.-owned assets abroad grew by $294.1 billion, the first increase in five quarters, while foreign-owned assets in the U.S. rose by $332.4 billion following a mere $14.6 billion increase in the second quarter.
|
top |
| Import and Export Prices
|
December, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices rose 1.7 percent (nonannualized) in November, pulling the 12-month growth rate up to 3.7 percent, its first foray into positive territory since October 2008. The increase follows a 0.8 percent increase in November and was led by a 4.8 percent rise in the prices of industrial supplies and materials and a 6.2 percent jump in petroleum prices. Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.7 percent and are down −1.62 percent over the past year. Export prices also rose in November, climbing 0.8 percent after a 0.2 percent increase in October, as agricultural prices jumped 3.7 percent and nonagricultural prices increased 0.7 percent. The 12-month growth rate of export prices is also positive for the first time since October 2008, at 0.6 percent.
|
top |
| International Trade
|
December, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit narrowed by $2.7 billion to $32.9 billion in October, following a $5.3 billion widening in September. Since June, the deficit had been unsteadily creeping back up towards its recent high of $64.9 billion reached in July 2008, and October’s narrowing shows a reversal in that trend. Like the previous month, both exports and imports increased to their highest levels this year, though the 2.6 percent jump in exports is much greater than the 0.4 percent rise in imports, a reversal from the previous month’s far larger gains in imports. The increase in exports was led by a 7.7 percent leap in exports of consumer goods. Imports, while still also at their highest level for the year, were hurt by a 12.1 percent drop in purchases of crude oil, as the average price per barrel fell by $0.78 and the U.S. imported 27.4 million fewer barrels in October than September. The 12-month growth rates of both imports and exports are at their highest levels this year, at −18.8 and −8.6, respectively.
|
top |
| Construction Spending
|
December, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Total construction spending was steady in October with a 0.0 percent change (nonannualized), following a downwardly revised 1.6 percent dip in September. October marks the first time in six months that construction spending has not declined. The flat rate is the result of a 0.3 percent gain in private construction, which is led by a 4.4 percent jump in private residential construction, and a −0.4 percent decline in public construction. Nonresidential private construction fell by 2.5 percent, its eighth straight month of decline, while nonresidential public construction pulled back by 0.4 percent. The 12-month growth rate of private nonresidential construction sank to a new record low of −20.6 percent, while the 12-month growth rate of private residential construction is at its highest level since October 2007, at −23.6 percent.
|
top |
| Renminbi-Dollar Peg Once Again
|
November, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: China gains a competitive advantage not from its peg with the dollar, but from its ability to offset the impact of foreign financial inflows on its price level. Appreciating this distinction is crucial for understanding Chinese exchange-rate policies.
|
top |
| International Trade
|
November, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit widened by $5.6 billion to $36.5 billion in September, the largest increase since September 2005. After a slight dip in August, September’s increase continues the trend begun in June of a growing deficit, following steady declines that ran from August 2008 through March. Unlike August, September brought substantial increases in both imports and exports. The rise in imports far outweighs that of exports, bringing about the sharp increase in the nominal trade deficit. Imports jumped 5.8 percent in August, driven largely by crude oil, as the average price per barrel increased by $3.42 and the average number of barrels per day rose by 882,000, following a decline of 898,000 in August. Exports rose by 2.9 percent, driven much more by goods than by services, which rose 4.0 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. These gains pulled the year-over-year growth rate of imports up to −20.6 from −28.5 in August, while exports have fallen −13.2 percent in the same period, compared with −20.6 percent in August. Both imports and exports of automobiles—which increased 2.9 percent and 11.4 percent. respectively—reached their highest levels so far this year.
|
top |
| Import Prices
|
November, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices rose 0.7 percent (nonannualized) in October, the seventh increase in the past eight months. The increase follows a 0.2 percent increase in September, and was driven by a 1.8 percent increase in industrial supplies and materials prices and a 0.9 percent rise in petroleum prices. The 12-month growth rate grew for the third straight month to −5.7 from a series low of −19.2 in July. Nonpetroleum import prices also rose 0.7 percent, the largest increase since June 2008. Export prices inched up 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent decline in September, again due largely to industrial supplies and materials prices, which rose 1.0 percent. This brings the 12-month growth rate of export prices to −3.4 percent, up from a series low of −8.3 percent in July.
|
top |
| Do Shipping Volumes Signal an End of the Recession?
|
October, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Paul W Bauer; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The advance estimate of 3.5 percent for GDP growth in the third quarter of 2009 is welcome news, and it suggests that the longest recession since the Great Depression and the deepest since the 1950s is likely to have ended at some point around the middle of the year. This isn’t to say that the widespread pain experienced by households and firms is over, just that the economy has at least stopped contracting and is starting to grow. Economic observers try to glean evidence of turning points from data series that come out more frequently and with less of a lag than GDP and employment estimates. Transportation data are good candidates, as many series are published monthly, relatively soon after the close of the month. Equally important for this purpose is the fact that they should be highly correlated with economic activity.
|
top |
| Employment Cost Index
|
October, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for civilian workers increased 1.5 percent (annualized rate) in the third quarter of 2009, leaving the growth rate unchanged from the previous quarter. Over the past year, the ECI is up a mere 1.6 percent, a record low since the series began in 1982. Wages and salaries for state and local government workers actually fell by −0.4 percent, after growth of 4.0 percent in 2009:Q2, while the wages and salaries of workers in goods-producing industries and private industry increased by 1.5 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. The net result of this was a growth rate in wages and salaries for civilian workers of 1.5 percent, unchanged from the previous quarter. Benefits rose 1.5 percent during the quarter, up from 1.1 percent in the previous quarter.
|
top |
| House Prices
|
October, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The S&P/Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city indexes each rose 1.0 percent in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth after 28 straight months of decline. While gains were not as strong as they were in July, the 12-month growth rates continued to rise from the current-cycle lows reached near the beginning of the year, with the 10-city index at -10.7 percent and the 20-city index at -11.4 percent. Moreover, the annualized three-month growth rates in both the 10-city and the 20-city indexes have risen in excess of 12 percent, the strongest short-term growth rates since near the market peak in late 2005. In a separate survey of house prices, the FHFA purchase-only index fell 0.3 percent in August, after rising for three consecutive months, losing virtually all of the modest 0.3 percent gains in July. Still, the 12-month growth rate increased to -3.6 in August, up from July’s -4.2 percent and a low of -8.8 percent in November 2008. Differences arise between the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index and the FHFA measure due to differences in coverage area and survey methodology.
|
top |
| Purchasing Power Parity and the Dollar
|
October, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: In terms of purchasing power parity, the dollar seems a tad undervalued these days, but that does not mean it will soon appreciate. Exchange rates can deviate from their purchasing-power-party levels for long periods. What’s more, the necessary adjustment can come through prices, not exchange rates.
|
top |
| Import and Export Prices
|
October, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: Import prices inched up 0.1 percent (nonannualized) in September, following a 1.6 percent increase in August. Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.4 percent, the largest increase since July 2008. Petroleum prices, on the other hand, fell by 1.1 percent, as compared to a 7.7 percent jump in August. Despite the increases seen in the previous two months, import prices and nonpetroleum import prices are down 12.0 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, over the past 12 months. Export prices dropped by 0.3 percent in September (largely due to a 2.8 percent decrease in agricultural prices), a slight retrenchment from a 0.7 percent increase in August. Export prices have fallen 5.6 percent in the past 12 months, thought that is up from a cyclical low of −8.3 percent reached in July.
|
top |
| International Trade
|
October, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; |
Data Update |
| Abstract: The nominal trade deficit narrowed by $1.2 billion to $30.7 billion in August, marking a turnaround from the previous two months in which the deficit had widened from $26.4 in May to $31.9 in July. The large increase in gross trade flows that occurred in recent months, which helped spark some optimism for a global rebound, slowed in August. Nominal exports rose by only 0.2 percent, following a 2.5 percent gain in July, and ending a trend of increasing growth in exports that began in May. One of the leading drivers of exports was large growth in exports of nonmonetary gold, which likely correlated with dollar declines in August. Imports, which increased in June and July, fell by 0.6 percent, due in large part to a 7.3 percent decline in net imports of petroleum. Since August 2008, exports are down 20.7 percent, and imports are off by 28.6 percent. The volume of industrial supplies imports—a measure some use to gauge investment expenditures—fell 2.6 percent in August, after gains of 11.8 percent and 3.7 percent in June and July, respectively.
|
top |
| With the Dollar Depreciating, Can Inflation Be Far Behind?
|
September, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Unfortunately for forecasting buffs, other factors besides monetary spurts affect dollar exchange rates, and these things muddy the ability of exchange-rate changes to forecast future inflation patterns. All and all, exchange rates do contain useful information for predicting inflation, but forecasting inflation simply with an exchange rate is a little like eating dinner with only a knife.
|
top |
| Borrow Less, Owe More: The U.S. Net International Investment Position
|
August, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: Since 1986, foreigners have held more claims against U.S. residents than U.S. residents have held against the rest of the world, or—as economists like to say—the United States has had a negative net international investment position.
|
top |
| Signs of a Thaw?
|
July, 2009 |
|
Caroline Herrell; Owen F Humpage; |
Economic Trends |
| Abstract: The global nature of our current economic problems suggests that few countries will find trade an outlet for their economic troubles. Moreover, the risks to the outlook still remain more heavily weighted toward the downside than the upside.
|
top |
