Christopher Vecchio |

Research Analyst


Christopher Vecchio, Research Analyst

Christopher Vecchio is a research analyst in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. His primary interests include development economics, international economics, and the economics of terrorism.

Mr. Vecchio holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from John Carroll University and a master’s degree in economics from Cleveland State University.

  • Fed Publications
Title Date Publication Author(s) Type

 

2014, Quarter 3 Christopher Vecchio; Joel Elvery; Metro Mix
Abstract: Though growth continues to be slower than national and statewide advances, the Cleveland metro area’s economy has strengthened in the first half of 2014. The housing market has particularly improved, with both house prices and building permits increasing. The metro area has also experienced a sharp decline in unemployment and modest increases in job numbers and average weekly wages. The latest data shows that 28.5 percent of adults in Cleveland have a bachelor’s degree, bringing the metro area up to the nation’s rate.

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2014, Quarter 3 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Cincinnati metro area’s recovery continues to gain steam as strong growth in the education and healthcare sectors is supplemented by strong and growing employment in the manufacturing and trade, transportation, and utilities sectors. A highly educated workforce, diverse economy, and the presence of multiple Fortune 500 company headquarters positions the metro area for long-term growth.

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2014, Quarter 3 Christopher Vecchio; Guhan Venkatu; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Pittsburgh metro area’s unemployment rate fell almost a percentage point in the first half of 2014. Nevertheless, employment gains have been muted in the metro area since it surpassed its pre-recession employment total in early 2012. This slowdown in employment growth is also evident across the area’s major industry segments. Additionally, average inflation-adjusted weekly wages have mostly moved sideways since early 2013. Still, Pittsburgh’s per capita GDP has surpassed the level it achieved in the last expansion, which has yet to be the case for the US. And, in 2014, home prices have risen somewhat more sharply in Pittsburgh than in the US.

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September, 2014 Christopher Vecchio; Anne Chen; Stephan Whitaker; Economic Trends
Abstract: The shares of a county’s employment that are in each major industry classification are correlated with the county’s poverty rate. Employment shares in healthcare and public administration, for example, are positively correlated with poverty rates, while employment shares in professional services and construction are negatively correlated with poverty rates. In this analysis, we examine some of the changes in these correlations in recent years. We will also look at the changes in industry employment that have accompanied changes in county poverty rates.

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August, 2014 Christopher Vecchio; Dionissi Aliprantis; Anne Chen; Economic Trends
Abstract: Since the onset of the Great Recession, unemployment rates have been high and job-finding rates have been low. These persistent trends raise concerns that unemployed workers may have become discouraged by poor job prospects. To begin understanding the job searching behavior of the unemployed, we examine data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and find that a greater proportion of the unemployed are spending time searching for a job after the Great Recession than before. We also find important differences in job search time by educational attainment, age, and gender—including decreases in search time for some groups.

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2014, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; Guhan Venkatu; Metro Mix
Abstract: Recent increases in inflation-adjusted weekly wages and employment, as well as a corresponding decline in the unemployment rate suggest that the area’s labor market has improved. The mining sector is a key contributor to the recent employment gains, though these gains have been offset somewhat by declines in manufacturing and financial activities.

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2014, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Dayton metro area continues its long recovery from the economic shock it experienced following the Great Recession and the exit of the General Motors (GM) Ohio Truck and Bus facility in 2008. The effect of these events, along with the region’s relatively heavy dependence on the muted recovery in the nation’s manufacturing sector, have made Dayton’s economic recovery slow and at times, uncertain. However, there are some bright lights on the horizon that make the acceleration of economic activity in the Dayton area a more likely event in 2014.

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2014, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: Although the recovery decelerated slightly during the last half of 2013, the Columbus economy remains strongly on the path of economic growth. The Columbus region continues to outpace the state of Ohio and other nearby metro areas in terms of employment and output growth. Because of its large investment in services dominated by educational institutions, the presence of the state capital, and multiple Fortune 500 companies either headquartered or doing business there, the region continues to see solid recovery across multiple sectors.

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2014, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; Guhan Venkatu; Metro Mix
Abstract: Employment in the Erie metro area fell about 1 percent from mid-2012 to mid-2013, with most major industry segments experiencing employment declines during this period. Recent year-over-year changes in home values have also been negative. However, per capita GDP rose roughly 5 percent in the Erie area from 2010 to 2012, far outpacing increases in Pennsylvania (1.7 percent) and the US (1.3 percent) during the same period.

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2014, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Lexington metro area continues to expand at a moderate pace as it benefits from significantly increased construction at the area’s largest employer, the University of Kentucky, and expansion at Toyota’s largest automotive plant outside of Japan. Area employment has returned to pre-recession levels as the region continues to benefit from growth in the construction, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services sectors.

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2014, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; Joel Elvery; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Toledo metropolitan statistical area’s recovery from the Great Recession has been mixed. After declining sharply from June 2006 to June 2009, manufacturing employment has seen strong growth, though it remains below 2006 levels. No doubt these job losses in the metro area’s most important sector contributed to the region steadily losing population. The population loss has led to further employment declines in sectors that serve local residents like retail trade, leisure and hospitality services, and housing markets, all of which have seen only a limited recovery. On the positive side, population decline has recently slowed, output growth has been strong, and the professional and business services sector has reached employment levels not seen since 2000.

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2014, Quarter 1 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Cincinnati metro area continues to outperform most other Ohio MSAs and many elsewhere in the Midwest.

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2014, Quarter 1 Christopher Vecchio; Guhan Venkatu; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Pittsburgh metro looks strong overall, though employment growth stalled in early 2012 after 30 months of strong recovery.

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2014, Quarter 1 Christopher Vecchio; Joel Elvery; Metro Mix
Abstract: Recessions hit the Cleveland-Elyria metropolitan area harder than the nation as a whole because of the area’s strong concentration of durable goods manufacturing. However, this sector has recovered well from the most recent recession.

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2014-05 Christopher Vecchio; Joel Elvery; Economic Commentary
Abstract: The earliest available source of metro-area employment numbers is the initial estimates of State and Metro-Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings (SAE) from the Current Employment Statistics program, but these figures are subject to large revisions. We show how large those revisions are for six metro areas and the four states in the Fourth Federal Reserve District. We also compare the precision of the initial estimates to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is less timely but more accurate. Our analysis confirms that the best approach for those wanting accurate metro-area employment figures is to use the final, benchmarked SAE or the QCEW.

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April, 2014 Christopher Vecchio; Joel Elvery; Economic Trends
Abstract: On March 21, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released benchmarked State and Metro-Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings (SAE) data. The benchmarked data, which come out once a year, are the most accurate employment statistics available for metropolitan areas. So the release is a moment of truth for the BLS and for metro areas. Here we assess the magnitude of the latest revisions and what they mean for our region.

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March, 2014 Christopher Vecchio; Stephan Whitaker; Economic Trends
Abstract: Consolidation of air carriers has caused a steady retreat of hubs from mid-sized metropolitan areas like those of the Fourth District. Of the eleven largest airlines before the 1978 deregulation, the “legacy” carriers, all but three have folded or been absorbed via mergers. Since 1990, 15 metro areas have felt the sting of losing an airline hub. In the Fourth District, Pittsburgh lost its home-grown US Airways hub around 2004, and Cleveland will be losing its United Airlines hub this year. The Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky airport, while still nominally a Delta hub, has seen passenger departures reduced from over 10 million in 2005 to fewer than 3 million in 2013.

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2013, Quarter 4 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Columbus metro area continues to outperform all other Ohio MSAs and most others in the Midwest. Its recovery in high gear, Columbus benefits from its large investment in services (dominated by educational institutions), the presence of the state capital, and multiple Fortune 500 companies headquartered or doing business there. Employment growth remains strong with the healthcare and professional and business service sectors showing the greatest strength.

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2013, Quarter 3 Christopher Vecchio; LaVaughn M Henry; Metro Mix
Abstract: The Cincinnati metro area continues to outperform most other Ohio MSAs and many elsewhere in the Midwest. Employment continues to recover.

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2013, Quarter 2 Christopher Vecchio; Metro Mix
Abstract: Wheeling’s GDP per capita has recovered from the recession a little more quickly than the nation’s and West Virginia’s, due to a combination of population loss and strong GDP growth. The unemployment rate has been improving in Wheeling at about the same pace as the nation. Job growth has been strong in professional services and natural resources and construction but negative in three other large sectors that together account for about 47 percent of employment.

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September, 2013 Christopher Vecchio; Stephan Whitaker; Economic Trends
Abstract: For decades, Americans have looked toward a future in which growing numbers of jobs in healthcare and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) would be needed to replace heavy industry as an economic driver. Business owners, politicians, and economic policymakers have sought ways to accelerate the transition in some cases and ease it in others. In this article, we assess trends in these fields in the Fourth District.

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June, 2013 Christopher Vecchio; Jonathan James; Economic Trends
Abstract: The exceptionally high unemployment rate of recent years indicates that the U.S. workforce has been persistently underutilized. With fewer individuals working than would otherwise be, or those with jobs working fewer hours than they would prefer, the economy is producing at a level far below its potential. This underemployment impacts current standards of living, but it could also have long-lasting effects on workers and the economy.

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March, 2013 Christopher Vecchio; Stephan Whitaker; Economic Trends
Abstract: During the previous decade, federal expenditures and transfers flowing into the metro areas of the Fourth District rose by 48 percent. By 2010, nine of the district’s ten largest metro areas were receiving inflows of federal funding larger than one-fifth of their gross metropolitan product. Federal money has helped smooth the district’s economy through both the business cycle and structural changes. However, reliance on federal spending means the districts’ metro areas will feel the impact of the sequestrations mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

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March, 2013 Christopher Vecchio; Jonathan James; Economic Trends
Abstract: High school graduations rates have risen, according to the latest figures from the Department of Education. But will the trend continue? The answer depends, in part, on future changes in the measurement of the rate. Beginning with the 2010-2011 academic year, all states will be required to report graduation rates using a new, more rigorous, and uniform standard.

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February, 2013 Christopher Vecchio; Murat Tasci; Economic Trends
Abstract: It has been five years since the beginning of the Great Recession, and the labor market recovery, while far from great, has been steady. Nevertheless, we are still more than 3 million jobs short of the pre-recession level. While these numbers underscore the severity and depth of the recession, looking at a host of labor market indicators gives one a mixed message about where we are in terms of the recovery; even though there has been gradual improvement, there are still persistent weaknesses.

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January, 2013 Christopher Vecchio; Stephan Whitaker; Economic Trends
Abstract: In the Fourth District states of Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, exports make a significant contribution to the economy. The total value of goods exported by these states is approximately $122 billion per year, which equals just under ten percent of their combined Gross State Products. We examine the District’s exports following the recession and what may lie ahead.

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October, 2012 Christopher Vecchio; Stephan Whitaker; Economic Trends
Abstract: After three years of temporary upturns and recurrent declines, housing prices appear to have finally entered a sustainable recovery. Nationally, home prices are up in year-over-year terms as measured by several indexes. the increase in house prices is evident in multiple measures and across most of the nation.

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