Research Topics

Banking & Financial Institutions

Housing and the Banking Industry: The deterioration of the housing market shows few signs of nearing an end. Home price indexes have continued to fall. Mortgage-related losses are taking a big bite out of mortgage lenders’ profits, and increasingly, the deterioration in earnings is affecting more than a few large institutions and becoming a widespread problem. Read more

A Model of Money and Credit, with Application to the Credit Card Debt Puzzle (PDF)
What You Should Know about Identity Theft (PDF)
Consumer Financial Privacy and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (PDF)
The mismatch between life insurance holdings and financial vulnerabilities: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances (PDF)
See all Consumer Economics

Workshop on Methods and Application of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
Moral Hazard in the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Banking (PDF)
The Role of Independence in the Green-Lin Diamond-Dybvig Model (PDF)
Co-Movement in Sticky Price Models with Durable Goods (PDF)
See all Economic Modeling

That Giant Sucking Sound: Applied often, Ross Perot’s apt metaphor has not outlived its usefulness. There are still plenty of sucking sounds to worry about, not the least of which is our current fiscal posture, which is unsustainable. Read more

The Yield Curve, September 2008: Since last month, the yield curve has flattened modestly, with short-term interest rates increasing and longer rates holding steady. The financial crisis showed up in the yield curve, with rates falling since last month, as investors fled to quality.The flight to quality and the turmoil in the financial markets may impact the reliability of the yield curve as an indicator, but projecting forward using past values of the spread and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 3.0 percent rate over the next year. Read more

Synopses of Selected Research on Housing, Mortgages, and Foreclosures (PDF)
A Snapshot of Mortgage Conditions with an Emphasis on Subprime Mortgage Performance (PDF)
Foreclosures in Ohio: Does Lender Type Matter? (PDF)
Foreclosures: Relationship Lending in the Consumer Market and its Aftermath (PDF)
See all Foreclosure

The Dynamics of Market Structure and Market Size in Two Health Services Industries (PDF)
Relocation Patterns in U.S. Manufacturing (PDF)
Appointing the Median Voter of a Policy Board (PDF)
Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis (PDF)
See all Industrial Organization

Rising Relative Prices or Inflation: Why Knowing the Difference Matters: Almost everyone uses the word inflation to refer to any increase in prices, but it ought to be reserved for a just one kind of price increase. True inflation has a different cause—and a different cure—than the price increases of goods and services caused by constantly changing supply and demand conditions. The Federal Reserve can and should act to control inflation, but when relative-price changes are putting pressure on businesses and consumers, the Fed can do little. Read more (PDF)

Swap Lines: The Federal Reserve is using swap lines to provide U.S. dollar liquidity to other central banks dealing with the global financial crisis.On September 29, the Fed offered swaps totaling $620 billion dollars to nine key central banks through April 2009, if necessary. Read more

Fourth District Employment Conditions: The District’s unemployment rate increased 0.2 percent, reaching 6.9 percent for the month of August. Compared to the nation’s unemployment rate, the District’s was again higher in August (by 0.8 percentage point), as it has consistently been since early 2004. Read more

What Exactly Is a Recession—and Are We in One?: The common definition of a recession, and the one most frequently cited in the media, is a period of two consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP. NBER’s actual definition is fairly vague, which explains why many prefer the shorthand definition, but the idea is fairly simple. A recession is any period when economic activity experiences a prolonged and widespread decline. Read more