Cleveland Fed survey: CEO inflation expectations decreased in 2025:Q1
Inflation expectations among U.S. business leaders decreased in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), which is published by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research.
CEOs and other top executives reported in January (2025:Q1) that they expect inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index to be 3.2 percent over the next 12 months, down from 3.8 percent in October (2024:Q4). The quarterly survey gathers responses from a large representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors. The Cleveland Fed reports these survey data because business leaders’ inflation expectations can influence the prices their firms charge customers, and these prices can, in turn, influence the path of inflation.
Each quarter SoFIE captures respondents’ beliefs for expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Once per year it asks about beliefs for average CPI inflation over the next 5 years, CPI inflation over the last 12 months, perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%.
More about SoFIE: Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (clevelandfed.org)
More indicators from the Center for Inflation Research:
- Inflation Nowcasting: daily estimates of the current period’s rate of inflation
- Median CPI and Median PCE: measures that can provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend
- Inflation Expectations: estimates of expected inflation based on financial data and surveys
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that along with the Board of Governors in Washington DC comprise the Federal Reserve System. Part of the US central bank, the Cleveland Fed participates in the formulation of our nation’s monetary policy, supervises banking organizations, provides payment and other services to financial institutions and to the US Treasury, and performs many activities that support Federal Reserve operations System-wide. In addition, the Bank supports the well-being of communities across the Fourth Federal Reserve District through a wide array of research, outreach, and educational activities.
The Cleveland Fed, with branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves an area that comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.
Media contact
Chuck Soder, chuck.soder@clev.frb.org, 216.672.2798
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About Us
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (commonly known as the Cleveland Fed) is part of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States.
Center for Inflation Research
The Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research is the hub for “all things inflation,” providing a combination of research, analyses and data, background and commentary, and an annual conference series dedicated to inflation.
Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations
The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a large quarterly representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors that was created to measure inflation expectations of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the United States. Released quarterly.