Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?
No, first estimates of state GDP growth are not rational forecasts, except for Georgia. Revisions to first estimates of state-level GDP growth tend to be biased, large, and/or predictable using information known at the time of the first estimate.
Working Papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.
Suggested Citation
Mitchell, James, and Taylor Shiroff. 2025. “Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 25-11. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202511
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